The Houston Rockets will host the Golden State Warriors at Toyota Center Friday night. The game has a
8:00 PM EST tipoff and televised nationally on ESPN.
The Rockets handed the Warriors one of their mere six defeats this season when Houston won 132-127 in double overtime at Oracle Arena on December 1. The total for that contest closed at 232 points and would have landed on 226 points if not for going to OT.
We’re seeing an even bigger number when the Dubs look for revenge at Houston Friday night, with the total opening at 237.5 points at most major bookmakers in Vegas and offshore.
The History Of Enormous Totals
It’s highly unusual to see a total this high in the NBA.
In fact, before Rockets@Nets closed at 234.5 points on January 15 we have to go back to 2010 to find a total closing at 234 or higher.
Only a total of 22 games have closed at 234 or more since the turn of the new millennium! The results?
The over is 12-9-1 with an average closing line of 237.6 points, so it’s not like the books are handing out free money on the under with those big numbers.
This Matchup
This will be the 19th meeting since the start of the 2014/2015 season. The over/under is 7-11-0 during that span with an average closing total of 216.9 points.
Golden State Warriors are the highest scoring team in the NBA at 117.8 points per game, but the under is 10-1 in Warriors last 11 road games and 10-3 in their last 13 vs. Western Conference rivals.
It’s also worth noting that the Warriors are coming off a 121-100 thrashing of the Thunder and the under is 8-2 in Golden State’s last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
Houston Rockets are second highest scoring team in the league at 114.5 points per game. The over/under is 25-20 in Rockets games this season and 7-1 last eight against teams from the Western Conference.
I’m personally not touching the total on this game, but would like to point out that you should not auto-bet the under just because you see a big number. The bookmakers are not dumb, and as you see they don’t throw those gigantic totals out liberally.
I will however release a top rated play on the spread. I’m currently 5-1 L6 Top Rated NBA, so don’t miss Friday’s BIG WINNER on this marquee matchup.
You can purchase the individual pick or get a subscription on my handicapping page right here on this site.
