Daily Expert Free Picks

1* Free Pick on Warriors

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: California +10.5

I successfully faded Miami last week with Virginia Tech +19.5 in a game the Hokies nearly won outright.  It was the Hurricanes' toughest test of the season to date.  I am going against them again here Saturday in what will now be their toughest game yet as they hit the road to face a very underrated Cal Bears team.

The Bears have a big rest and preparation advantage coming in off a bye week.  I imagine it was a very productive bye week considering they were coming off a tough 14-9 loss at Florida State in a game they had no business losing.  The Bears outgained the Seminoles 410 to 284, or by 126 total yards.

Cal's 21-14 win at Auburn looks very impressive and there was nothing fluky about that victory.  The Bears outgained the Tigers 332 to 286 for the game.  That's the only game Auburn has been outgained in this season as the Tigers let both Oklahoma and Arkansas off the hook with turnovers.  They should be 4-1, and if they were that win by Cal would be getting a lot more attention than it is.

Justin Wilcox is a great defensive coach and will use those two weeks to come up with the proper game plan to slow down Cam Ward and this Miami offense.  The Bears rank 12th in the country in scoring defense at 12.8 points per game, 23rd in total defense at 287.5 yards per game and 17th at 4.4 yards per play.  Wilcox is 40-25 ATS as an underdog as the head coach of the Bears.  Bet California Saturday.

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Browns vs Commanders 
1 ET, October 6, 2024 
Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD 
5-Unit bet on the Browns priced as 3.5-point underdogs. 

26-13 ATS Last 39 NFL Best Bets and 2-0 ATS with 10-UNIT MAX Bets and 68% ATS last 5 years.
MNF Football Triple System 8-Unit Titan is released.

The week-to-week scoring volatility and results has been the highest ever so far this season. I did have another 10-UNIT Game of the Month winners on the Washington Commanders as the destroyed the Arizona Cardinals 42-14 and were priced as underdogs. I am 4-1 ATS with College and Pro 10-Unit Best Bets this season and both NFL plays have been dogs.  

In week 3 we witnessed the Buffalo Bills embarrassing the Jaguars on National TV and then they themselves were thrashed by the Ravens Sunday night. So, do not think for a second that a previous great or embarrassing performance by any NFL will carry over and form a trend that can be trusted. 

Favorites have gone 37-25 SU (60%) and 27-34-1 ATS (44%) this season. If that favorite is coming off a win, they have gone just 12-14 SU and 6-16-1 ATS (36%). Favorites that were priced as underdogs in their previous game have gone just 8-13 SU (38%) and 6-15 ATS (29%) this season.  

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 36-36 SU (50%) and 44-22-6 ATS (67%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on road dogs priced between 2.5 and 5.5 points. 

The dog scored fewer than their posted team total in their previous game. 

The dog is coming off an upset loss to a conference foe. 

The Browns are priced as 3.5-point road underdogs. They scored 16 points in their four-point loss to the Raiders in Week 4 priced as three-point favorites. 

From the predictive model: The projections call for the Browns to gain 6.25 or more yards-per-pass and to have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games over the previous five seasons, the Browns have gone 19-3 SU (86.4%) and 15-7 ATS for 68% winning bets and 6-2 SUATS 975%) if priced as the dog.

1* FREE INFO PLAY

Saturday card has 4 big CFB Plays including the SEC Game of the Year and a Big Executive level tier 1. There is also MLB Divisional series systems up. ACC Comp play below

The ACC Comp play is on Georgia Tech at 8 eastern. The Yellow Jackets have won the last 3 in this series and we note that Conference home favorites with rest off a road loss are cashing over 80% vs an opponent that is undefeated and off a home dog win like Duke. The Blue Devils rallied from down double digits last week to stun North Carolina but now face a solid Tech team that is above average on both sides of the ball and has played a tougher schedule. Look for Tech to cover. Rob V-

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Cowboys/Steelers OVER 44

The Key: The Cowboys are an OVER team this season.  Their defense is as poor as it has been in a long time, and it's getting even worse now with the losses of their 2 best pass rushers in Parsons and Lawrence to injury.  They are missing 2 key players in the secondary as well.  The Steelers just lost their star LB in Highsmith and it made a difference as they had their worst outing of the season last week in a 27-24 loss to the Colts.  Now they must face this high-powered Dallas passing game that can move the ball through the air against anyone.  There won't be many stops in this game as it easily tops this 44-point total Sunday night.  Take the OVER.

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Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan and Texas Tech running back Tahj Brooks are among the best college players at their positions. They are two reasons why I like Texas Tech-Arizona to have a high-scoring game and go Over this total. 

Texas Tech averages 41.6 points and gives up 34.4 points. The Red Raiders lead the Big 12 in points per game - and also lead the conference in most points allowed. Not only do they have Brooks, but a strong passing attack headed by QB Behren Morton, who has thrown for the 12th-most passing yards in the country. 

Arizona QB Noah Fifita also is a good quarterback. The Red Raiders rank second-to-last in the nation in pass defense. They give up 6.4 yards per play, have surrendered a league-worst 23 TD's and only have four sacks. 

David's 1% NCAAF Free Pick

We really like the under in this matchup. The total seems inflated due to both teams' recent high-scoring performances, but we're expecting offensive regression from both sides.

This is a 1% free play on the under. 

Joe D’s NFL IS ON FIRE, and this Sunday: 5 BIG WINNERS: JETS/VIKINGS, 66.6% HIGH ROLLER, 1-0 LATE INFO MOVE, AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH, & 29-6 CRUSHER of the season. Get them all and SWEEP THE SUNDAY NFL BOARD!

Sunday’s FREE NFL WINNER: Over CARDINALS/49ERS.

Games 467/468.

1:05 PM PST/4:05 PM EST.

San Francisco has won a covered both games at Levi Stadium this season, and despite being a big banged-up, they enter this matchup with confidence, knowing they have won and covered the last four meetings in this division rivalry. Despite having quite a few injuries, the 49ers are still a touchdown favorite here. The reason why they are, is because they are stacked with talent deeper than the pancakes at your favorite local breakfast eatery. The total has gone over five consecutive meetings in this series. I feel the oddsmakers have a sharp side here. Goes up, take the ‘dog. Goes down, take the fav. No question lots of scoring. Take the OVER. Thank you.

1* NCAAF - UCF/Florida FREE PICK on Florida +2.5

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Houston Texans +1.5

The wrong team is favored in this game.  I have the Texans and Bills power rated as two even teams.  So getting the Texans as home underdogs is a nice value.  The Texans have reinforcements on the way with Tank Dell returning this week, and Joe Mixon likely returning.  The Bills lost more players last week in their 35-10 home loss to the Ravens.  They were already without LB Terrel Bernard, LB Matt Milano and CB Taron Johnson.  WR Khalil Shakir and LT Dion Dawkins both got banged up against the Ravens.  Now DE Von Miller has been suspended.  The Bills are short on weapons on offense, and short on depth on defense.  Give me the Texans.

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This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS for our Saturday Free Play. Miami is coming off a controversial win over Virginia Tech as a Hokies last second touchdown was overturned and the Hurricanes survived a 38-34 victory. Now they are in a difficult spot coming off that emotional win and now having to travel out west as a big favorite. The offense was able to generate 505 total yards but quarterback Cam Ward was under pressure all night as he was not only sacked four times but went 8-21 when not in a clean pocket and this favors the California defense as it has a top 40 Pass Rush Rate. The Golden Bears have an outstanding secondary as they are ranked No. 17 in coverage which has led to few redzone chances. Overall, California has allowed 14 points or fewer in all four of its games while its 12.8 ppg allowed is No. 12 in the country. The Golden Bears suffered a tough 14-9 loss at Florida St. despite outgaining the Seminoles 410-284 to fall to 3-1 and while their defense has led the way, the offense has not been horrible, they just have not been able to generate a lot of points. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has not put up huge numbers but he is efficient with a 67.5 percent completion rate and California is No. 33 in Success Rate on passing downs. The running game needs to get going and this is a defense to do so against as the Hurricanes cannot tackle. This is a big number for Miami to be laying after such a huge win and the California defense can keep this one within range and under margin. Play (360) California Golden Bears

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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #390 Minnesota Golden Gophers over USC Trojans (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 5 BTN) Just do not expect Minnesota to meltdown like Wisconsin did last week against USC. The Trojans are not strong in the trenches, and I do not believe they will be able to convert a high percentage of third downs like they did last week. Minnesota took Michigan to the wire last week, a team that beat USC earlier this season and I think they can do the same on Saturday. Look for a lower scoring game and getting points is the way to go. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend Football Card, as we will have a bounce back week. Sign-up now with a long term package and let 53 years of handicapping experience work for you.

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Packers -3

I'll gladly lay the 3-points with Green Bay as they get set to take on the Rams in LA on Sunday. I think this is a get right game for the Packers after last week's home loss to division rival Minnesota. Packers got off to a horrible start in that game before rallying to make it respectable. No surprise there was a little rust for the offense in the first game back for Love after he missed some time with an injury. I also think people aren't giving that Vikings team the respect it deserves. This is a big step down in class with this decimated Rams team. LA is without their two star wide outs that really make their offense go and the defense is a work in progress. As much as I like Stafford, I don't think he'll be able to keep pace offensively with Love and the Packers. Give me Green Bay -3! 

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PSP Data Driven 1* free pick on Over. 

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Over. The Gators run defense ranks at the bottom of the SEC. Central Florida ranks #1 in the country in rushing offense.

The Florida State Seminoles come into this game against Clemson at a disappointing 1-4. Clemson has turned things around after losing to Georgia and are 3-1 this season. Clemson has won and covered four of the last five between these two. Clemson is putting up 42 points per game. On the defensive end side, Clemson is allowing 25.8 points per game. The Seminoles are putting up 15.2 points per game and on the defensive side, they are giving up 24.6 points per game. Clemson has put the hammer down on teams since that loss to Georgia. FSU has been a hot mess on offense under DJ U and this is the best defense they have seen all season. I look for Clemson to put another drubbing onto FSU.

Play on Clemson. This is a FREE PLAY!