Daily Expert Free Picks

(#968) Houston Astros | ML | . 

Juan Mejia (0-2, 5.40 ERA) vs. Ryan Weiss (0-2, 7.36 ERA). 

This is not a very good pitching matchup on Thursday by the numbers, whatsoever. However, I think this is a good time to ride the hot hand. The Astros have been perfect in the series so far, winning both games. Both of these starters are relief pitchers, meaning that we'll see a bullpen game from both. That being said, the team with the better relievers will have the upper hand, and I believe that it's Houston. No, this probably won't be the most watched game on Thursday. But, it's definitely one to consider. Astros complete the sweep. 

Burns' Prediction: 6-3 Astros.

1* on Predators -103

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Rockies/Astros OVER 8.5

The Houston Astros are 13-4 OVER in their last 17 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 13 of those 17 games.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 6.0 runs per game this season.

The Astros should hang a big number on opener Juan Mejia and Chase Dollander tonight.  Mejia is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP while allowing 5 earned runs and 15 base runners in 8 1/3 innings this season.  Dollander is 3-13 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 111 2/3 innings in his career in the big leagues, including a 4.61 ERA in 13 2/3 innings this season.

Ryan Weiss is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA and 2.09 WHIP while allowing 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 23 base runners in 11 innings this season for the Astros.  The rookie has been in over his head thus far and likely won't go very deep in this one.  He'll exit to a terrible Houston bullpen that has posted a 6.12 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 82 1/3 innings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

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1* Free Play on Predators -103

1* Free Sharp Play on Sharks vs Jets under 6½ -130

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Take LAFC/San Jose UNDER (7 p.m. EST, Sunday April 19) This is a major Western Conference clash between two title contenders and these have been the best two defensive sides in MLS this season (along with Seattle). They have allowed a combined four goals through 14 combined matches! Not only is this a big match for Western Conference status, but this is a great test for the Earthquake to show how solid they really are this season. Two seasons ago this was one of the worst sides in MLS but they rebuilt quickly and have a great squad this season. LAFC probably has the best chance to represent the west in the MLS Cup, so San Jose will want to play well here and we think they lean into their defense. These sides are behind the Vancouver Whitecaps in the Western Conference standings, and that team has an easy matchup Friday, so both sides here will want to keep pace. These matchups have generally been high scoring, but the Earthquake are a more focused defensive side this season and we think they will treat this like a playoff matchup and dig deep defensively.

Jim's Free Play: 968. Astros -1.5 Runs 

Houston excels in categories we like such as pitching, lineup depth and late-game stability. They should be favored to cover this 1.5 run spread versus Colorado. The Rockies offense often fades away on the road and especially away from Coors Field. Colorado simply doesn’t have the firepower to launch home runs or produce extended rallies in pitcher friendly environments. Houston has the pitching matchup advantage and the Astros lineup has more depth and discipline to take advantage early against Colorado’s shaky rotation. When this game shifts to the bullpens Houston has even more of an advantage. Houston’s bullpen is much deeper and capable of locking down leads. Colorado’s relief corps has been one of the worst in baseball. Houston has the starting pitching, lineup production, bullpen depth and home field advantage to separate.

My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and San Diego at 8:40 pm et on Thursday.

We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night with the Padres rallying for a stunning come-from-behind victory in walk-off fashion. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Thursday as Seattle sends Luis Castillo to the hill against Walker Buehler of San Diego. Castillo will be looking to rebound after getting roughed up by the Astros last time out. Through three starts spanning 13 innings this season he has logged a 3.16 FIP. I like his chances of rebounding with a quality outing at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Buehler looked like he was finished as a viable big league starter a couple of years ago, largely due to injuries. He's rebounded nicely since joining the Phillies late last season and now the Padres. So far this year, Buehler owns a 3.87 FIP and 1.26 WHIP through three starts. Despite the Mariners ninth inning meltdown last night, I do trust both of these bullpens. Seattle's 'pen still owns a 2.88 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the season while Padres relievers have logged a 3.04 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Take the under (8*).