Daily Expert Free Picks
Daily Expert free picks for the NFL, College football, NCAA Basketball, NBA, MLB and NHL from pro bettors and winning handicappers.
Dave’s Thursday Free Play:
1* on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 214.5
The Key: The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 matchups between the Nuggets and Lakers. They have combined for 232, 236, 245, 240, 208 and 220 points in those 6 contests. They have averaged 227.8 PPG at the end of regulation when you take out the one overtime game. So there’s still value with the OVER 214.5 tonight. The OVER is 22-8-2 in the last 32 matchups as well. Take the OVER.
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Rocketman Sports FREE WNBA play Thursday 9-24-20
Las Vegas vs Connecticut (7:30 PM EST)
Play On: Las Vegas -6 1/2
The Las Vegas Aces take on the Connecticut Sun in WNBA playoff action on Thursday night. Las Vegas is 19-5 SU overall this year while Connecticut comes in with a 13-13 SU overall record on the season. Connecticut is 1-8 SU and ATS last 9 games when tied in a playoff series including 0-2 SU and ATS last 3 years. Las Vegas is the better team here. We'll recommend a small play on Las Vegas tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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PICK - Milwaukee Brewers -138
I'll take my chances here with Milwaukee coming away with a win in Thursday's big series opener against the Cardinals. These two NL Central rivals will play 5 games over the next 4 days to close out the season.
I just can't pass up on the Brewers Corbin Burnes at this price. Burnes has been unbelievable. Guy has a 1.77 ERA in 8 starts (11 appearances). It's no fluke. Burnes has a 1.79 FIP and 2.90 xFIP. He's got a 0.51 ERA in his last 3 starts. A stretch in which he's struck out 30 guys in 17 2/3 innings.
St Louis will send out Kwang-Hyun Kim. The overall numbers are good for Kim. He's got a 1.36 ERA and 0.939 WHIP in 6 starts. However, the advanced metrics aren't a fan, as he owns a 3.98 FIP and 4.53 xFIP. We may have seen those advanced numbers show their ugly face in his last outing, as he gave up 4 runs on 6 hits (2 HRs) in 5 2/3 innings. Give me the Brewers -138!
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Big card on tap tonight. We got a 50* NFL Top Play in the Jaguars/Dolphins game. We have a 40* selection on the college gridiron and a 40* pick for Game 4 between the Lakers/Nuggets.
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Syracuse has gotten off to a slow start with losses against Pittsburgh and North Carolina, but it gets it first game in the dome which could make a difference even without a packed house. The struggles are not surprising with a young team and after two games with the offense a bit off, there have been chances and opportunities that could start to click in this week. Quarterback Tommy DeVito has been held in check, but this is a good matchup to get him going early to take some shots downfield. The Orange defense can keep up a stellar run stop and rattle Georgia Tech freshman quarterback Jeff Sims into enough opportunities to do it. They are employing a new 3-3-5 defense and that is one that the Yellow Jackets have not faced. Unlike before, the Orange are employing a more flexible defensive system that seems to matchup better against dual threat offenses. Sims has thrown four interceptions in two games, and his mistakes will allow the Orange to stay in the game. The Yellow Jackets are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite while the Orange are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Play (398) Syracuse Orange
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Miami Marlins +156
The Miami Marlins are right in the thick of the playoff race at 28-28 on the season in a bunched National League. They have lost four in a row though, and it’s time to turn it around against the Braves here. They are facing a Braves team with not a whole lot to play for in this series considering they already clinched the NL East. Pablo Lopez has been solid this season at 5-4 with a 3.96 ERA in 10 starts for the Marlins. He has allowed just four homers with 53 strikeouts in 52 1/3 innings. Miami is 10-2 following three or more straight road games this season. Give me the Marlins.
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Small play on under 77 in this early (12 noon) start on Saturday in Greenville, NC. The Pirates are playing their opener and may get off to a slow start. There are going to be plenty of points scored but a 45-28 type of game still goes under by a few points.
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Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Washington Nationals -107
The New York Mets (25-31) have lost three of their last four to basically give themselves no chance of making the postseason. I think that realization will hit them like a ton of bricks when they embark on this four-game series with the Washington Nationals.
The Nationals have been eliminated for a while, but they’ve continued to play out the string. The Nationals have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall while scoring a combined 36 runs in those five contests, or an average of 7.2 runs per game.
Patrick Corbin is the better starter in this matchup. The left-hander has been at his best at home this season with a 3.16 ERA in five home starts. Corbin has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts against the Mets, going 3-1 with a 3.59 ERA during this stretch.
The Mets are 0-9 off three straight games against an AL opponent this season. New York is 7-14 (-12.4 units) against left-handed starters this season. Bet the Nationals Thursday.
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This game here really seems like a big overreaction in the line. Louisville just played a very good Miami team and actually outplayed them racking up over 500 total yards. They actually outgunned Miami but yet lost the game by double digits. The main reason for that was because they lost the turnover battle 3-0. Pitt won a classic ugly game vs Cuse which I did have Cuse and never had to sweat it. They aren't going to be able to control the game on the ground like they would like. I think Louisville wins this game outright as the wrong team is favored.
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The set-up: Chicago has lost four straight and it's also lost its hold on the AL Central lead, as the Twins now hold a .5 game advantage of the White Sox fell for a second straight time vs. the Tribe in extra innings. Chicago is in a "free fall" right now and I think it'll have its hands full here with this surging Indians side. Dallas Keuchel is 6-2 with a 2.04 ERA for the White Sox and Zach Plesac is 4-2 with a 1.85 ERA for the Indians. Let's call these starters a "wash."
The pick: Cleveland is 8-4 in its last 12 at home as well, while Chicago is just 1-5 in its last six on the road. "Momentum" is a very real, tangible factor in sports and I expect the Indians to once again ride the big wave that they've created here at the end of the season. Great price on the home side here!
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the Indians.
This O/U line has come down considerably from its opener. I believe thats creating some value with the 'over.' UAB put up 35 points in last year's game and will be looking for a repeat performance. Meanwhile, the Jags come in looking for revenge. Both South Alabama games have finished above the 50 mark. Meanwhile, UAB games are averaging 62.5 points. I say this number looks a little low. Consider the Over.
My free play is on the Tor Blue Jays at 6:37 ET.
The Toronto Blue Jays can clinch a postseason berth with a victory over the visiting New York Yankees Thursday night in the finale of a four-game series in Buffalo (Toronto's home away from home in this COVID-shortened season). The teams split the first two games but the Jays won 14-1 last night, as the Yankees played a sloppy game in making four errors on the night and failing to score a run after loading the bases with none out in the fifth with the Blue Jays leading 5-1. The Tampa Bay Rays clinched first in the AL East on Wednesday by defeating the Mets 8-5 while the Yankees are second in the division, three games ahead of the third-place Blue Jays. However, the Yankees still have motivation, as they still have a chance at the No. 4 seed, which gets them home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
It's a matchup of left-handers on Thursday, as Jordan Montgomery (2-2, 5.12 ERA) takes on Hyun Jin Ryu (4-2, 3.00 ERA). Montgomery made 29 appearances (17 starts) in 2017, going 9-7 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. However, Tommy John surgery limited him to just eight appearances (seven starts) in 2018 and 2019. He's been healthy enough this season to make nine starts and the Yanks are 5-4 in his starts. A closer look reveals that while he's been decent at Yankee Stadium, in his three road starts, he's lasted just 12 innings while posting an 8.25 ERA and opponents have batted .315 against him!
The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Hyun Jin Ryu, who went 14-5 (2.32 ERA) with the Dodgers last season, the THIRD time in five full seasons with LA that he won 14 times. Ryu was signed as a free agent in the offseason and has been one of MLB's better offseason acquisitions. He got off to a slow start in July's two starts, allowing eight ERs on 13 hits in nine innings (8.00 ERA) but since Aug 1, the Jays are 7-2 in his eight starts (Toronto is 8-3 in his 11 starts, overall). He allowed five ERs in a Sep 7 start vs the Yankees but Toronto came back to win that game, 12-5. In his other EIGHT starts since Aug 1, he's allowed only SEVEN earned runs in 46 innings for a 1.37 ERA and a 54-9 KW ratio. Yes, his FA signing was a "good one!" Take the Jays!
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Baltimore at Boston 7:30 ET
Red Sox over Orioles- This is battle of the AL dregs as the teams with the worst re3cords in the AL East battle to stay out of the cellar. Boston is on a season high 3-game win streak and they start Martin Perez (3-4, 3.88 ERA) looking to get the Red Sox their first swept of a series this year. Alex Cobb (1-5, 4.76) is winless since opening day when he defeated the Red Sox. Today, Boston gets even with him and you can 'bust your bookie' with Chip's MLB Best Bet winners...
Thursday NFL Free play. My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.
I'll gladly back the Jaguars laying under a field goal on Thursday night (I would still play them at -3). Despite facing two terrific stables of running backs in Weeks 1 and 2, the Jaguars still managed to earn a split thanks in large part to some stout run defense, giving up just north of 3.5 yards per rush. Now things get a whole lot easier as they host the Dolphins, who due to injuries and otherwise, haven't had a great deal of success moving the football on the ground. That leaves this game in the hands of mistake-prone QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who continues to play on borrowed time with Tua Tagovailoa waiting in the wings. Offensively, the Jags appear to be in good hands with Gardner Minshew as he continues to exceed expectations and silence his doubters. Here, Minshew should feast on a Dolphins pass defense that has been virtually non-existent through the first two weeks of the season. Note that Miami has recorded only three sacks so far this season so Minshew should be able to operate in a clean pocket for much of the night on Thursday. I'm higher on the Jags receiving corps than most and expect another big performance from them on Thursday night. Take Jacksonville (8*).