Daily Expert Free Picks
Daily Expert free picks for the NFL, College football, NCAA Basketball, NBA, MLB and NHL from pro bettors and winning handicappers.
Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Boston Red Sox +105
The Tampa Bay Rays haven't been interested in winning games here down the stretch. They have lost four straight and are just 2-8 in their last 10 games overall. Amazingly, they have scored one run or fewer in seven of those eight losses. They clearly wanted to face the Cleveland Guardians instead of the Blue Jays or Mariners, which is why they have been tanking.
The Boston Red Sox haven't quit playing. They have gone 5-3 in their last eight games overall, including wins in each of the first two games of this series. I look for them to cap off the series sweep behind Nick Pivetta, who will also shut down the Rays.
Tampa Bay has decided to throw Josh Fleming for this one to save their pitching staff. Fleming is 0-2 with a 10.29 ERA and 2.286 WHIP in two starts this season. Fleming is 1-1 with an 11.37 ERA and 2.765 WHIP in three career starts against Boston, allowing 16 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings. The wrong team is favored here given the circumstances. Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.
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1* Free Sharp Play on Cubs -113
The Cubs (-113) are worth a look as a slim road favorite against the Reds in Wednesday's MLB action. Chicago had really been playing well before dropping the first two games of this series and it's just been a lack of offense that has hurt them. Reds have scored just 3 runs in each of the first two games in the series and have not scored more than 3 runs since Sept. 21. I don't see them breaking that streak with Chicago sending out Adrian Sampson, who has a 3.28 ERA in 15 starts, 2.49 ERA in 10 road starts and a 1.42 ERA in his last 3 starts. I also like the Cubs offense to get back on track in the finale, as the Reds' Graham Ashcraft has a 8.10 ERA and 1.949 WHIP in his last 3 starts, giving up 13 runs on 23 hits in just 13 1/3 innings of work. Play the Cubs -113!
The final day of the regular season is tricky. Motivation is more important because some teams are already looking toward the playoffs, while others just want the long season to finally end.
The Red Sox should be a safe play. Boston defeated Tampa Bay in the first two games of this series. The Red Sox would like to go into the off-season with a sweep of the Rays.
Tampa Bay is focusing on the postseason. The Rays are 2-8 in their last 10 games and have lost four in a row. They were originally going to start Drew Rasmussen. But he's been scratched because Tampa Bay wants him fully fresh for the playoffs.
Instead this will be a bullpen game for the Rays with Josh Fleming getting the start. Fleming is 2-4 with a 6.23 ERA. He has an 11.37 ERA and 2.76 WHIP in three career starts against the Red Sox.
Boston is going for its sixth consecutive home win. Nick Pivetta gets the start for the Red Sox. He's up-and-down, a very inconsistent pitcher. The Rays are swinging cold bats, though. They have been held to one or fewer runs in seven of their last 10 games.
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #337 TCU Horned Frogs over Kansas Jayhawks (12p.m., Saturday, October 8 FS1) This is a surprise battle of unbeaten teams taking place at Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, KS. Kansas is becoming a media and fan darling, and I expect the public to be all over them in this game. The line is set high and the oddsmakers want you to take the underdog in this game. TCU has the better resume at this point of the season with wins against Oklahoma and SMU. They are coming off a dominating performance last time out and look for them to follow that up with a double-digit win in this game. Kansas has been getting by with close wins, but their luck will run out on Saturday. Kansas is 17-37 ATS in their last 54 games against teams with a winning record. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card. 7-2 in winning weeks to open the season and now is the time to jump on board with a long-term package and receive all of our plays. Sign-up now and let 51 years of handicapping experience work for you.
Mike Lundin's Cubs vs Reds MLB Free Pick October 5, 2022
The Cubs headed into this series on a seven-game winning streak. They've dropped the first two games of the series, but I think they'll close out the year with a win. Cincinanti right-hander Graham Ashcraft is 0-2 with an ERA of 8-10 ERA in his last three starts while Cubs righty Adrian Sampson is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.42 in his last three starts.
The Reds are 13-22 at home when the money line is +125 to -125. Cubs are 31-15 in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
FREE PICK ON CHICAGO CUBS.
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With the Jays clinching the home wild card spot and Trevor Richards as an opener, I don't expect an all out effort from Toronto today. We may see plenty of Kikuchi on the mound, and key offensive players rested.
The young and feisty Orioles team has much to be proud of this year, and may be more invested in today's game. Orioles' starter Bauman has bounced up and down from Triple A, and should be all in today. He has pitched reasonably well in short starts this year.
I think this game will be all about mindset, with the Jays looking forward, and the Orioles in the moment. Take the Orioles to win today.
1* MLB - Yankees/Rangers FREE Pick on Rangers +130
Wednesday's Free MLB Pick is on the Texas Rangers as a +130 home dog against the New York Yankees. As with any sport, handicapping the end of the regular-season is all about finding which teams are motivated. While New York has been pretty much locked into the No. 2 seed in the AL for weeks, there was still a lot of hype around their games down the stretch because of Judge's chase for 62 home runs. Judge finally got that 62nd home run in the nightcap of Tuesday's double-header. You got to think they did a little celebrating for that. I would be surprised if Judge and several other starters played in the finale. I expect a flat Yankees team to lay an egg in this one. Play the Rangers +130!
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Dave's Wednesday Free Play:
1* on Houston Astros -1.5 (+120)
The Key: The Philadelphia Phillies clinched a playoff spot on Monday and it showed on Tuesday. They lost 10-0 to the Houston Astros. They have no intentions of winning this game either now that they are locked in their playoff position. The Astros continue to play well despite being locked in for a long time now. Framber Valdez is 16-6 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 30 starts this year for the Astros. He'll mow down what will be a depleted Philadelphia lineup as they rest up for the playoff. Houston is 41-12 against left-handed starters like Bailey Falter this year. Take Houston on the Run Line.
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Arizona Diamondbacks +158
The Milwaukee Brewers were just eliminated from postseason contention. I don't trust their mental state to be laying this big of a number against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Corbin Burnes has given up at least 3 earned runs in six of his last nine starts and hasn't been himself down the stretch. Burneds gave up 5 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in his last start against Arizona on September 3rd. Merrill Kelly is 13-8 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 32 starts for the Diamondbacks this season. Kelly is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in his last two starts against the Brewers while giving up only one earned run and 10 base runners in 14 innings. Give me the Diamondbacks.
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Wednesday's Free MLB Pick: Houston Astros -1.5, +130
I will take my chances with the Astros on the -1.5 run line at +130 odds, as they close out the 2022 regular-season at home against the Phillies. We cashed the Astros on the -1.5 run line (+120) last night and it was never in doubt. Houston jumped out to a 5-0 lead in the 1st inning and went on to win the game 10-0.
My biggest reason for playing the Astros was I thought the Phillies would have a tough time showing up to the ballpark with any kind of motivation after finally clinching a playoff spot the night before. I don't think Wednesday's game is going to be any different. Only thing on Philadelphia's mind is Game 1 of their Wild Card matchup on Friday.
As for the Astros, they are the No. 1 seed in the AL, which means they get a first round bye in the playoffs and won't start their postseason run until early next week. They don't have to worry about limiting their pitchers. If anything, they probably would like to give their top relievers some work in this game. I also think it helps this being a home game for Houston. Give me the Astros -1.5, +130!
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Rutgers’ Greg Schiano is a fine coach and has done good work getting Rutgers to be competitive . After having to endure an explosive Ohio State program last week, Im betting Rutgers finds the sledding much easier here, against a Nebraska side that has lost 18 of their L/22 away games SU, and in an emotional letdown state after winning their first game under new HC Mickey Joseph. Note: The Scarlet Knights own the No. 10 defense in the nation while Nebraska’s is registered at a lowly No. 124 overall defense. Advantage Rutgers.
Play on Rutgers to cover
Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Oklahoma plus the points over Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday.
Everyone is quick to write off Oklahoma off consecutive losses against Kansas State and TCU, especially given the nature of last Saturday's defeat at the hands of the Horned Frogs. I'm not so easily convinced. This is still a talented Sooners squad with everything to play for and I look for it to show up in Saturday's rivalry showdown against Texas. The Longhorns weren't really tested in last week's 18-point rout of West Virginia. They will be here. It's easy to forget that the Sooners started the season with a perfect 3-0 record, scoring a whopping 127 points in the process. There's really no shame in either of their last two losses as Kansas State and TCU have combined to go 8-1 to start the campaign. Last week's game against TCU was over before it had barely started as a couple of defensive breakdowns led to the Horned Frogs running out to a 21-3 lead midway through the first quarter. Here, I look for the Sooners to be the ones that deliver the first blow. A similar, perhaps inferior, offense to that of Oklahoma's laid out a pretty good blueprint for giving the Longhorns defense fits in Texas Tech two weeks ago. The Red Raiders scored touchdowns in all four quarters and ultimately prevailed by a 37-34 score in overtime. Even last week, we saw Texas lack that true finishing ability late as it gave up two fourth quarter touchdowns against West Virginia. Remember the Longhorns are also just two games removed from being in a battle against UTSA - that was a four-point game before a pick-six that proved to be the back-breaker at the end of the third quarter. Oklahoma has the type of relentless offense that should thrive in an underdog environment such as this, capable of staying on the field for extended stretches with an explosive ground game. It has the ability to effectively shorten this game - something you always want to see in an underdog side. Here, we'll note that the Sooners are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times they've come off a loss by 10+ points as a road favorite, as is the case here. What better way to answer back following an embarrassing loss than with a strong showing against the rival Longhorns? Take Oklahoma.
1* FREE PLAY Astros RUNLINE.
Philadelphia won the opener of this series by a score of 3-0 and by so doing, it punched its ticket to the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Houston then came out and won by a score of 10-0 in yesterday's contest. I expect a similar final combined blowout here as well. I believe Philadelphia has already "checked out" and is preparing for its postseason. The Astros have nothing to play for here, as they've locked up the top spot in the AL until the World Series, but I still expect the home side to play with pride and dominate here in the final regular season game. This is a matchup that favors the home side too. Bailey Falter has been great for Philly, as he's 6-4 with a 3.90 ERA, but Framber Valdez has been even better for Houston, entering 16-6 with a 2.89 ERA. Look for Valdez to go deep and for the Astros to put on another clinic at the plate; consider Houston on the runline option!