Daily Expert Free Picks

[1%] Free Play on Lorenzo Musetti +107

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Miami Heat +8.5

There's clear value on the Miami Heat in Game 4 when you compare this to the Game 3 line.  The Heat closed as 5-point home underdogs in Game 3 and now are 8.5-point home underdogs in Game 4.  That assumes the Heat are just going to fold, which I don't expect to be the case.

We saw the Thunder take a lot of money and close 15.5-point favorites against the Grizzlies in Game 4 when they were going for the sweep.  They were life and death in that game despite the Grizzlies not having JA Morant.  They eventually won by 2.  Considering what the Heat have been through this season and in the playoffs, I don't expect them to just quit.

The Heat actually ranked #1 in the NBA in net rating (+14) over the final 12 games of the regular season.  Eric Spoelstra has shown once again why is is one of the best coaches in the NBA getting the most out of another Miami Heat team.

The Heat went on the road in two must-win games and beat the Bulls by 19 and the Hawks by 9 to become the first No. 10 seed ever to quality for the playoffs.  They ran out of gas late in Game 1 against Cleveland, but it was still an 8-point game entering the 4th quarter before the Cavs pulled away.

The Heat came back refreshed in Game 2 and gave the Cavs all they could handle in a 121-112 loss as 12-point underdogs.  Nothing went right in Game 3 as the Cavaliers shot 53% compared to just 42% for Miami and only 7 made free throws for the Heat.  That 124-87 blowout has inflated this line for Game 4, and I expect some positive shooting regression in Miami's favor tonight.  Bet the Heat Monday.

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Dave's Monday Free Play:

1* on Detroit Tigers +108

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Detroit Tigers tonight as underdogs to the Houston Astros.  The Tigers are 18-10 this year with one of the best run differentials in baseball scoring 4.6 RPG and allowing 3.1 RPG.  The Houston Astros are 14-13 scoring 3.7 RPG and allowing 3.3 RPG.  Jack Flaherty is the better starter in this matchup. Flaherty sports a 2.63 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 5 starts this year with 34 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings.  Ronel Blanco is 2-2 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 5 starts for the Astros with 20 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings.  Flaherty held the Astros to 3 ER in 11 2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts in 2 starts against them last year.  Take Detroit.

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David's 1% MLB Free Pick

We really like the Guardians in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Twins are 3-10 on the road (0-2 in Bailey Ober's two road starts) while Cleveland is 8-4 at home and has won both Gavin Williams's home starts in 2025. 

This is a 1% free play on the Guardians on the moneyline. 

Monday MLB Free play. My selection is on Houston over Detroit at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

We'll fade a Tigers squad riding high after a three-game sweep of the Orioles in a tough situational spot as they hit the road to face a focused Astros team on Monday night.

Jack Flaherty gets the ball for Detroit, but despite strong underlying numbers this season, he’s been stuck with a 1-4 team record in his starts. We'll sell high on Flaherty here, especially coming off a nine-strikeout performance where he still failed to earn a victory. Behind him is a taxed Tigers bullpen that worked heavy innings over the weekend (three games in two days) — a significant concern against an inconsistent but still dangerous Houston offense. Detroit’s relief corps ranks a middling 14th in xFIP this season.

On the other side, Ronel Blanco starts for Houston, and he’s in good form after a dominant outing against Toronto, allowing just two hits and one earned run over 6 2/3 innings. Blanco has been sharp at keeping opposing hitters off-balance, with current Tigers batters going just 1-for-17 against him historically. Houston’s bullpen is well-rested entering this game and ranks among the top-three in xFIP across the majors, a major edge late in the game.

With the Astros set up better both in terms of starter and in the bullpen, and catching the Tigers in a natural letdown spot, Houston is the play on Monday night.

Take Houston. Projected score: Astros 4, Tigers 2.

1* Free Play on Stars +153

1* Free Pick on Braves/Rockies: under 10½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

1* FREE INFO PLAY A's vs Rangers under 9½ -115

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Cavs/Heat OVER 211

The Miami Heat clearly don't have an answer for the Cleveland Cavaliers defensively.  They have allowed 121, 121 and 124 points in the first three games of this series.  This has been an OVER series in general with the OVER going 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  The Cavs and Heat have combined for at least 211 points in six consecutive meetings and 219 or more in five of those.  They have gone for 210 or more combined points in 10 of their last 11 meetings dating back further.  The Cavs are an offensive juggernaut and the Heat are capable of keeping up with them as they have scored at least 106 points in six of their last eight meetings with the Cavs.  With this series sitting at 3-0 there won't be a ton of defensive intensity in Game 4.  Give me the OVER.

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Monday Card has a 6* NBA PLAYOFF TOP Total along with MLB and NHL- Comp Play below

The NBA Comp play at 10 eastern is on Golden St as round 1 home favorites off a home favored win and cover and a prior road loss and road win three back are 9-0 straight up and to the spread if the last game went under. The Warriors arent a typical 7 seed and make plays in crunch time. If they win here they will take a 3-1 series lead. Look for a more open game here with the Warriors getting the Cover. Rob V-

MIKE'S MLB FREE PICK

The Baltimore Orioles are in the midst of a brutal 1-9 skid, and things aren't looking much better today against a touch Yankees team, and to make things worse, they were favorites in most of those losses...

Orioles' right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano has struggled, allowing eight runs on 18 hits over his last three starts. That’s trouble against a Yankees team that’s been averaging 5.8 runs per nine innings this season.

On top of that, the Orioles will have to contend with Yankees’ righty Will Warren, who’s allowed more than two runs in just one of his five starts.

With the Yankees’ bullpen outperforming Baltimore’s by over a full run, this is a tough spot for the O’s.

2% FREE PICK ON THE YANKEES. 

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R&R Totals FREE MLB Over-Under Monday 4-28-25

UNDER 9 1/2 -125 Oakland/Texas (Sears/Corbin) Listed

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Monday’s FREE PLAY: New York Yankees.

Game 911.

3:35 PM PST/6:35 PM EST.

Winning both ends of yesterday’s doubleheader, the Yankees further gelled themselves in the top-spot in the competitive, A.L. East division, at 17-11 overall. Believe it or not, and you can check this statistic, they are the only team in the A.L. that possesses winning records, both at home and on the road. As a matter of fact, there are only two teams in the N.L. that can boast that accomplishment as well. A season ago, the Orioles gave them a hard time. However, Baltimore is a very different team this season. They dwell in the Eastern division cellar at 10-17, owning the second-worst record in the American League, and enter this matchup losing three in a row, and six of their last seven contests. They own a dismal record of 5-6 at Oriole Park. They were just swept on the road in Detroit, three games to none, being outscored by a combined, 17-5. Their offense is bad enough, ranking in the bottom third in just about every major category. But their pitching has been downright deplorable. They rank 30th in baseball, with a team ERA of 5.37. Speaking of pitching, today, they send Tomoyuki Sugano to the mound. He is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA, as the team has won three of his five starts this season. However, he has faced the Blue Jays twice, the Royals, the Guardians, and the Nationals. Only one team he has gone up against, in Cleveland currently possesses a winning record. He also has a problem giving up the long ball, yielding six home runs just over his last four starts. This does not bode well when you have to stand in 60 feet away from the Yankees lineup that ranks second in baseball accumulating 45 home runs. As a matter fact, NY’s powerful lineup ranks first in OPS, second in team batting average, and second in scoring. They send Will Warren into the hill He has made five starts this season, only yielding more than two earned runs in a start one time. And folks, he has faced some good offenses. The way the Bronx Bombers are bombing the baseball, along with the fact the O’s just can't hit, tells me New York gets another big division victory here. Take the Yankees, and take her bookmaker’s money. Thank you.

The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians start their four-game series at Progressive Field in Cleveland on Monday, April 28, 2025 at 6:10 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Twins who stand at 12–16 and fourth place in the AL Central have won three consecutive games after defeating the Los Angeles Angels in a weekend sweep. The Guardians currently stand at 15–12 and rank second in their division while working to recover from losing two out of three games against the Boston Red Sox.

The Minnesota Twins will start right-handed pitcher Bailey Ober on the mound. Ober achieved a 2–1 win-loss record and posted a 5.04 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP throughout 25 innings this season. During his most recent game start he permitted just one run across six innings versus the Chicago White Sox. Ober has demonstrated strong pitching performances against Cleveland with two wins and two losses while maintaining a 2.20 ERA and 46 strikeouts across eight games totaling 45 innings.

The Cleveland team will respond by sending right-hander Gavin Williams who has a 2–1 season record with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP through 26 innings pitched. Williams pitched six and one-third innings versus the New York Yankees during his latest appearance while allowing two runs and seven hits. He owns a 2–1 record against the Twins with a 2.12 ERA and 14 strikeouts across four games in 17 innings.

Byron Buxton leads the Twins offensively with a .237 batting average while hitting six home runs and driving in 15 runs. Trevor Larnach produced a .234 batting average while delivering four home runs and 14 RBIs. Steven Kwan leads the Guardians with a .346 batting average and 15 RBIs and four home runs while Kyle Manzardo tops the team in home runs with seven and RBIs with 18.

Injuries are affecting both teams. Willi Castro (oblique), Royce Lewis (hamstring), and Matt Wallner (hamstring) are unable to play for the Twins who lack their second baseman, third baseman, and outfielder respectively. Wrist injury has sidelined center fielder Lane Thomas for the Guardians who also lack pitchers Shane Bieber and Trevor Stephan because of elbow problems.

The Guardians look to get back to what they have done best thus far while Minnesota still struggles to get above the .500 mark.  I like the host in this one at a cheap price with Williams on the mound. 

Jim's Free Play: Cleveland Guardians

Free Pick on Stars +153

FREE PLAY on Stars +153

Cavs -8.5

The Cavs look for the sweep and they’re worthy of a move on Monday. Miami just can’t keep up or compete with this Cleveland team. The Cavaliers blew Miami out on Saturday afternoon and they did it by bullying them inside with Allen and Mobley. The Heat are going to struggle once again to slow this Cavs offense down, that is beating them both with the inside game and their ability to shoot the 3. This is a complete mismatch. Grab the Cavs. My daily free plays are meant to be cheap bankroll plays. Remember folks, money management is the key to profits when it comes to sports gambling. Strong lean on the CAVS -8.5 tonight. You know what to do. Hop ON! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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Monday's MLB Free Pick

PLAY ON: Yankees/Orioles OVER 9.5 

The New York Mets are first in the NL East with a 19-8 record so far. They were in a perfect spot to put distance between themselves and the rest of the division with a four game series with the lowly Washington Nationals. The Mets should be playing for a sweep but they forgot their in nine innings to a game. In game on, they took a lead into the ninth and allowed the winning run to score from first on a single. Yesterday they took a 7-1 lead into the bottom of the seventh only to lose in the bottom of the ninth. Griffin Canning gets the start for the Mets. Trevor Williams goes for the Nats. Griffin Canning is struggling on the road this season as he is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 11.0 innings (two starts) while Trevor Williams is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA and a .282 batting average against in 10.0 innings (two starts) at home. Washington has won two of the three games so far this season against New York, they have the better pitcher and momentum after yesterdays game. I will ride with the Nats at plus money.

Play on Washington. This is a FREE PLAY!

(#909) Minnesota Twins @ (#910) Cleveland Guardians // UNDER //. 

Bailey Ober (2-1, 5.04 ERA) vs. Gavin Williams (2-1, 4.15 ERA) . 

While neither of these two pitchers have stellar numbers to begin this season, both guys are showing signs of improvement over recent games. Bailey Ober allowed only a run in six innings of work on Tuesday last week. That was good for him to get an easy win under his belt. Yes, this matchup is definitely more difficult on paper. However, Ober has shown that he can pitch well in recent years and I expect him to do just that today. Gavin Williams is also coming off a very solid outing going six and a third and allowing only two runs against the Yankees. This will be an easier matchup for him. Expect runs to be hard to come by in today's game. 

Score Prediction: 3-2 Guardians.

Free Total Annihilator On Rockets vs Warriors over 202 -108

Our selection is on the Athletics to defeat the Texas Rangers on Monday at 8:05pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Athletics will start JP Sears -- terrific looking over his L2 stars. Two runs allowed in 11 innings.

The A's are 8-4 over their L12 games played on the road.

They are a much better team this year than they have been over the last few seasons.

Texas will start Patrick Corbin -- has been good this season but has not been good the last few years.

The Rangers are just 1-4 over their L5 games.

We're on the A's.

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