Daily Expert Free Picks
Daily Expert free picks for the NFL, College football, NCAA Basketball, NBA, MLB and NHL from pro bettors and winning handicappers.
We have a veteran QB that has completed 71.5 % of his passes this season in Derek Carr, going up against a rookie QB in Josh Rosen, who has more interceptions (eight) than touchdown passes (six). I know the Raiders have looked bad, but Arizona has not been much better, and just because they did not get crushed by KC last week and stayed within a couple of TDs, does not mean their on a upward trajectory like some of the pundits would have you believe. With that said, look for the points to be golden this week, in what will be a closely contested battle between two hapless bottom feeders. Note: The Raiders have covered their L/3 visits to the desert.
Home teams vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 12-28 for a go against 70% SU conversion rate for bettors.
NFL team (OAKLAND) - after scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games are 39-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Broncos/Chargers UNDER 47
I like this UNDER in this division rivalry between the Broncos and Chargers Sunday. The Chargers have gotten healthier on defense in recent weeks and it’s starting to show with their play on the field. They have allowed 19 points or fewer in five consecutive games and an average of just 13.2 PPG in those five contests. They should hold the Broncos in check. This is a Denver offense that has scored 23 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games overall. They just aren’t very good on that side of the ball this season. But their defense is still very strong, and they should be able to slow down Philip Rivers and this Los Angeles offense. The Broncos and Chargers have combined for 47 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings. With a total of 47 Sunday, this is an easy choice. Give me the UNDER.
*#2 Ranked Football Capper in 2017-18!*
*#3 Ranked NFL Capper in 2017-18!*
*1959-1779 Overall Run! ($1,000/game bettors up $128,740)*
*390-290 Football Run! ($1,000/game bettors up $71,330)*
*155-112 NFL Run! ($1,000/game bettors up $31,560)*
*65-37 Run on NFL 5 Unit Plays!*
Crush your book on the pro gridiron this weekend and sign up for my Sunday All-Inclusive NFL 7-Pack for $49.99! This card features THREE 5 Unit BEST BETS in the Bucs/Giants, Eagles/Saints & Vikings/Bears games! You pay *ONLY $7.14/Play* for all 7 winners, and you are GUARANTEED-to-PROFIT or I'll send you Monday's NFL plays for FREE!
*All the way back to 1989 (database history), road teams off of a tight 4 point or fewer loss have done great next game at a 500-409-32 55.0% ATS clip on the blind! - Take the Broncos
*The Titans are 0-19 ATS (-9.25 ppg) off a win when they are facing a team allowed more than 370 total yards in their last game.
*The Broncos are 10-0 ATS (+10.35 ppg) after a game in which Demaryius Thomas had fewer than 3 receptions.
I am 10-3 the L3 NFL Sunday's, and this Sunday, I continue to dominate pro football and get you paid as I have my NFL AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH and my 29-6 CRUSHER PLAYS. I will once again CRUSH THE BOOKS THIS SUNDAY and if you follow me, you will too.
Sundays FREE NFL WINNER: UNDER in the Raiders/Cardinals matchup.
1:05 pm pst.
In a game that will have serious draft pick implications, scoring will be at a minimum. Both offenses are among the worst in football (Oakland 30th, Arizona 31st). The Raiders average just 13.0 PPG on the road, where 3 of their 4 away outings have gone UNDER the Total. The Cardinals account for a mere, 13.0 PPG at home, where 4 of their 5 games played this season also went UNDER the Total. The UNDER is 6-1 in Oakland's L7 road games, 13-3 in Oakland's L16 overall, 20-7 in Arizona's L27 home games, and 9-4 in Arizona's L13 overall. Take the UNDER. Thank you.
#NFL FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
I think the Philadelphia Eagles are spotted way too many points to pass up on when visiting the New Orleans Saints Sunday afternoon.
Sure, the Saints are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS on the season, but they own the league's second-worst pass defense and Philly QB Carson Wentz is finally healthy and threw for a season-high 360 yards against the Cowboys last time out.
Saints are 1-4 ATS last five against a team with a losing record and are running the risk of playing down to the competition. I like the 4-5 Eagles to hang in there.
Free pick on Philadelphia Eagles.
Don't miss Sunday's premium pick card which includes NFL GAME OF THE WEEK releases for both side and total plus much more action.
1* Free Sharp Play on Eagles +8 -105
My money is on the Eagles to cash in a cover on the road against the Saints. This is simply too many points for Philadelphia to be getting, as the books have drastically inflated the line here due to the fact that New Orleans comes in having won 8 straight and covered their last 7. Eagles might not have what it takes to bring down the Saints, but I see this one coming right down to the wire and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Philadelphia win this one on the road. Eagles played their best last year in this same role as an underdog. Bet Philadelphia +8!
My free play is on the Den Broncos at 4:05 ET.
The Chargers' first season back in LA did not go well at the start (team opened 3-6) but the Chargers would go 6-1 down the stretch to finish 9-7 (missed out on the playoffs in a tie-breaker). It seems like last year's strong finish created some momentum, as LA enters this Week 11 game at home against the Broncos, 7-2. The Chargers have won SIX in a row, as they get to host the 3-6 Broncos. In contrast, Denver (5-11 in 2017) opened the 2018 season 2-0 but limps into the StubHub Center having lost SIX of its last seven.
Denver's wild-card chances are already on 'life support,' as if the Broncos' 3-6 wasn't bad enough, the team is also just 1-5 in conference games. Denver ranks 11th in total offense (377.1 yards per game) but is just 19th in scoring (22.8 points), as the decision to add QB Case Keenum (11 TDs and 10 INTS / QB rating of just 83.9) as a free agent hasn't proven to be the solution. Denver's running game is solid, ranking 9th (126.7 YPG), while averaging a robust 5.2 YPC. Phillip Lindsay (Colorado) leads all NFL rookies with 591 rushing yards on 5.4 YPC. The defense is led by pass rushers Von Miller (nine sacks) and Bradley Chubb (eight to lead all NFL rookies). Miller has registered 15 career sacks against the Chargers - his highest total against any team.
Speaking of defense, LA's has allowed an average of 13.2 points over its last five games and enters this contest 8th in points allowed (20.7 per game). However, star defensive end Joey Bosa (23 sacks in 28 NFL games) will be a game-time decision as he hopes to make his season debut after suffering a foot injury in August. Veteran QB Philip Rivers ( (2,459 yards with 21 TDs, just 4 INTs and a QB rating of 115.4) is enjoying a excellent year, while RB Melvin Gordon is tied for fifth in the NFL with 672 rushing yards. He's averaging 5.4 YPC, has seven rushing TDs and four more receiving.
Los Angeles has won 13 of its last 16 games dating to last season and its only two losses in 2018 came against the Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams, who share the NFL's best records at 9-1. One of those wins was a 21-0 rout of visiting Denver in October 2017, the Broncos' first shutout loss in 25 years. However, this marks the Chargers' first contest at home in 42 days, as they've played three road games plus a game in London. Since moving to LA, the Chargers are a modest 7-7 ATS when favored and laying a TD here vs Denver, is not the team's preferred role (Chargers have been a great dog for the last few seasons). As noted above, Denver really needs a win and with pass rushers like Miller and Chubb, just may have the 'formula' to pull it off. SEVEN straight wins is asking a lot. Take the points.
This is a Free NFL play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Oakland Raiders are a hot mess, and a week without practice due to the wild fires in Northern California isn't going to help matters. They rank 24th in the NFL in total defense, allowing over 30 points per game. There's no doubt that this organization is tanking, focusing on the future. Arizona might not be going to the playoffs, but they have looked more competitive in recent weeks. Josh Rosen threw for 252 yards and two TDs on 23-of-40 passing in a win over San Francisco in his last home game. Once a fantasy football legend, it's been a quiet season for David Johnson. He's shown signs of returning to his former glory in recent weeks, coming off back to back games with 100+ total yards from scrimmage. The Raiders rank 29th in the NFL in rushing defense, so it figures to be a good matchup for Johnson.
ASA is on a MASSIVE 77-57 NFL Top Side Run and you can join in the PROFITS tonight with their 10* NFC North Game of the Month! Vikings - Bears winner!
ASA PLAY ON Denver +7.5 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
The Chargers have flown under the radar for the most part but not at 7-2 they are gaining public attention and it’s reflected in the line here. Looking back a their last three home games (where they really don’t enjoy much of a home field advantage) they were favored by -6.5 points versus Tennessee, -5 versus Oakland and -10.5 over San Francisco. Now they are laying a TD in a division game against a Broncos team that is better than those three teams even though their record doesn’t show it? Take a look at who the Chargers have played their last six games. The Raiders twice, the Titans, Cleveland and San Francisco with the only decent team being Seattle. Denver has similar overall statistics to the Chargers but have faced a much tougher schedule including KC twice, the Rams, Seattle, Baltimore and a surging Texans team. When these two teams met a year ago the Broncos were favored by a point on this field and are now catching a full TD? This is basically Denver’s last chance to keep their Wildcard hopes alive, they lose here and the season is over for them. LA averages 392YPG offensively, Denver 377YPG. The Chargers give up 356YPG while Denver allows 364YPG. Factoring in the strength of schedule those numbers are much closer than you might think which doesn’t translate to the pointspread here. Grab the points.