The Angle(s): The San Diego Padres hand the ball to veteran southpaw Robbie Ray (10-7, 3.28 ERA), who gives San Diego a massive edge in this matchup given the Mets’ agonizing struggles against left-handed pitching this season. New York has been a bankroll drainer against southpaws, posting an abysmal 13-21 record (-32% ROI) when facing left-handed starters. Additionally, as home underdogs, the Mets have collapsed to a 2-11 record (-67% ROI).
The Mets counter by sending rookie right-hander Zac Thornton (3-3, 2.78 ERA) to the bump, and while Thornton’s ERA looks shiny enough through his limited action, New York is an auto-fade in this specific betting role.
San Diego comes into this contest riding strong momentum (7-3 over their last 10 games) and boasting a lineup equipped to capitalize on New York’s home-dog struggles.
The Bet: Padres -112 (3%).
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