home Betting Theory MLB Teams to Fade and Follow 2017

MLB Teams to Fade and Follow 2017

MLB Teams to Fade and Follow 2017

The unofficial 2nd half of the MLB season gets underway Friday night.

Both bettors and bookmakers have had plenty of time to adjust to certain teams tendencies, but there has still been some static bets generating “auto money”.

Let’s take a look at a couple of the biggest winning and losing picks for sports bettors so far during the 2017 MLB season.

3 Most Profitable Teams

Team Games Win-Lose (W%) Avg Line Avg Line Against On Against
Astros 89 60-29 (67.4%) -140.6 129.5 +$2,153 -$2,430
LA Dodgers 90 61-29 (67.8%) -178.1 162.7 +$1,892 -$2,219
Brewers 91 50-41 (54.9%) 115.1 -125.9 +$1,698 -$2,122

It’s not all that surprising to see that the two teams with the best record in the MLB (Astros and Dodgers) have brought in the most money for bettors this season, but the big story here is the Milwaukee Brewers!

The Brew Crew’s 50-41 record is “only” good for 7th best in the MLB, but they’ve consistently won as big underdogs (9-10 as +150 or higher) and been extremely solid when favored (18-6).

They enter the 2nd half of the season top of the NL Central, 5.5 games ahead of the chasing Cubs and Cards. Expect the bookmakers to adjust to Milwaukee’s success.

3 Biggest Losers

Team Games Win-Lose (W%) Avg Line Avg Line Against On Against
Giants 90 34-56 (37.8%) 100.3 -110.9 -$2,488 +$2,005
Phillies 87 29-58 (33.3%) 134.8 -147.4 -$2,258 +$1,891
Cubs 88 43-45 (48.9%) -148.3 136.5 -$2,036 +$1,594

Big bettors backing the Cubs straight up would have lost a small fortune this season. They’ve constantly been overpriced as reigning champions, and the World Series hangover has been bigger than anyone could have predicted.

Note the Cubs’ average line of -148. Perhaps the books are starting to adjusting now though as the Cubs are only a small favorite with Montgomery going up against Gausman at Baltimore Friday night.

Free Pick

Would I recommend anyone to follow or fade any of these teams on this information alone? Hell no, but it’s interesting to see how bookmakers can fail to adjust the price to teams over such a long span as 90 games.

It’s also worth noting that the Milwaukee Brewers (3rd most profitable team) will take on the Phillies (2nd biggest loser) Friday night with Zach Davies (10-4, 4.90 ERA) taking the mound for Milwaukee and Nick Pivetta (2-4, 4.73 ERA) toeing the slab for Philly.

Milwaukee is a -160 favorite and 3-1 SU as a favorite of -150 or more this season. I’m gonna give out an unofficial free pick on the Brewers here.

Check out Mike Lundin’s Free Picks page for all my free picks and I recommend you to sign up for a premium subscription at Mike Lundin’s Premium Picks page to get access to all my best bets.

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