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MLB Teams to Fade and Follow 2017

MLB Teams to Fade and Follow 2017

The unofficial 2nd half of the MLB season gets underway Friday night.

Both bettors and bookmakers have had plenty of time to adjust to certain teams tendencies, but there has still been some static bets generating “auto money”.

Let’s take a look at a couple of the biggest winning and losing picks for sports bettors so far during the 2017 MLB season.

3 Most Profitable Teams

Team Games Win-Lose (W%) Avg Line Avg Line Against On Against
Astros 89 60-29 (67.4%) -140.6 129.5 +$2,153 -$2,430
LA Dodgers 90 61-29 (67.8%) -178.1 162.7 +$1,892 -$2,219
Brewers 91 50-41 (54.9%) 115.1 -125.9 +$1,698 -$2,122

It’s not all that surprising to see that the two teams with the best record in the MLB (Astros and Dodgers) have brought in the most money for bettors this season, but the big story here is the Milwaukee Brewers!

The Brew Crew’s 50-41 record is “only” good for 7th best in the MLB, but they’ve consistently won as big underdogs (9-10 as +150 or higher) and been extremely solid when favored (18-6).

They enter the 2nd half of the season top of the NL Central, 5.5 games ahead of the chasing Cubs and Cards. Expect the bookmakers to adjust to Milwaukee’s success.

3 Biggest Losers

Team Games Win-Lose (W%) Avg Line Avg Line Against On Against
Giants 90 34-56 (37.8%) 100.3 -110.9 -$2,488 +$2,005
Phillies 87 29-58 (33.3%) 134.8 -147.4 -$2,258 +$1,891
Cubs 88 43-45 (48.9%) -148.3 136.5 -$2,036 +$1,594

Big bettors backing the Cubs straight up would have lost a small fortune this season. They’ve constantly been overpriced as reigning champions, and the World Series hangover has been bigger than anyone could have predicted.

Note the Cubs’ average line of -148. Perhaps the books are starting to adjusting now though as the Cubs are only a small favorite with Montgomery going up against Gausman at Baltimore Friday night.

Free Pick

Would I recommend anyone to follow or fade any of these teams on this information alone? Hell no, but it’s interesting to see how bookmakers can fail to adjust the price to teams over such a long span as 90 games.

It’s also worth noting that the Milwaukee Brewers (3rd most profitable team) will take on the Phillies (2nd biggest loser) Friday night with Zach Davies (10-4, 4.90 ERA) taking the mound for Milwaukee and Nick Pivetta (2-4, 4.73 ERA) toeing the slab for Philly.

Milwaukee is a -160 favorite and 3-1 SU as a favorite of -150 or more this season. I’m gonna give out an unofficial free pick on the Brewers here.

Check out Mike Lundin’s Free Picks page for all my free picks and I recommend you to sign up for a premium subscription at Mike Lundin’s Premium Picks page to get access to all my best bets.

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Free picks

Game Details
Jul 20 '19, 8:10 PM in 2h
MLB | MIL vs ARI
Play on: UNDER 9 -110
Game Analysis

Mike Lundin's Brewers @ Diamondbacks Free Pick

The Milwaukee Brewers and the Arizona Diamondbacks combined for 17 runs Friday night. I expect runs to be harder to come by for both sides here in Game 3 of the series on Saturday.

Milwaukee hands the ball to left-hander Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 3.19 ERA) for his first start since landing on the injured list on June 1 due to arm fatigue. Each of Gonzalez's six starts this season have gone under the total and he owns a solid 2.93 ERA in eight career starts versus the D'Backs.

The Brewers turn to Zack Greinke (10-4, 2.95 ERA) who gave up five runs at St. Louis last time out, but he had held both Colorado and San Francisco scoreless over a combined 14 innings prior to that. Greinke owns a mediocre 4.07 ERA in eight career outings (seven starts) against the Brew Crew, but he has their current roster limited to a .221 AVG over 122 at-bats. 

Under is 5-2 in Greinke's last 7 starts overall. Under is 5-1 in Diamondbacks' last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Free pick on UNDER. 

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Pick Released on Jul 20 at 05:14 am

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

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A former poker pro, Mike Lundin made his picks available to the public in June of 2014. The late start didn't stop him from finishing as the #8 handicapper overall for the year with a profit of $34,970 for $1,000/game clients! He has since racked up multiple Top 10 finishes across several sports.

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Mike Lundin's experience as a professional poker player has proven to be an immeasurable asset in sports handicapping. He's a numbers guy, with a keen eye for spotting trends and stats that just don't jive with the odds offered by the books. Mike's plays will rarely be on huge favorites, he prides himself at finding value in close match-ups and although Mike's considered a moneyline/spread specialist, when he releases totals play you better believe he's got something special cooking. 

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