How to handicap NBA injuries is knowledge every basketball bettor needs to have in his arsenal to have any hope of beating the bookie. In this article, I will try to break down not just how an injured star player will affect the betting lines, but also less valuable players like role players and bench players.
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How To Handicap Injuries to Star Players in the NBA
The breaking news of an injured NBA star player can move the spread by several points. While your first inclination might be to fade the team with the injured star player, I would advise against it, as that’s exactly what the bookmakers expect the bettors to do.
Instead, sit back and let the squares do their thing = pounding the opposite side. Come game time, you should be getting a great line on the team with the injured star player compared to if you would have bet the opener. I recommend you sign up for an account at 5Dimes and Bookmaker to get the best lines and odds for all sports.
Also take into consideration that while star players are important, the rest of the team has a tendency to step up their game and “overperform” in their absence. No one likes being disrespected, and this is particularly true for professional athletes.
For star players that have been out of the lineup for some time, you’ll want to find the date he was injured and analyze the teams play ever since. Perhaps they are due for a regression to the mean, one way or the other. Also, take note of the depth on his position and whether the team has injuries to other players in that very same position.
How To Handicap Injuries To Role Players / Bench Players
A missing role player or bench player will not have nearly the same impact (if at all) on the point spread as a star player, but that does not mean that their absence won’t matter.
To determine their value you will need to dig deep into the stats and get to know the team. A team with a deep squad is not likely to suffer as much as a team where the difference in skill between the starters and the bench is much higher.
In my experience, missing role players/bench players often set up profitable fades as the public has a tendency to not pay attention to their absence or simply underestimate their value.
Something that is true for both star players and role/bench players is that you’ll want to see how the team has performed without him in recent seasons. While this information is not easy to find, it is out there, you just need to be willing to put in the work.