home Mike Lundin Free Picks, MLB Free Picks Giants vs. Cubs Betting Preview October 7, 2016

Giants vs. Cubs Betting Preview October 7, 2016

This is a Giants vs. Cubs Betting Preview for October 7. The San Francisco Giants will visit the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field for Game 1 of a National League Division Series Friday night. The Cubs earned their spot in the postseason by finishing with the best record in baseball while San Francisco wrapped up the regular season with four straight wins before knocking off the Mets with a three-run homer on the road in Wednesday’s NL wild card game.

San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs
Friday, October 07 – 9:00 PM EST
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
LINE: Giants +165 / Cubs -180; Total: 7

Line Movement

The Cubs opened as a -175 favorite and bettors who got their money in early must feel pretty good at seeing Cubs -181 as of the publication of this Giants vs. Cubs Betting Preview. There is no reverse line movement as 54 percent of the wagers have come in on the home team moving the line accordingly. The total is holding steady at 7 with a virtually equal amount of wagers on both sides.

Pitching Matchup

The Giants hand the ball to right-hander Johnny Cueto (18-5, 2.79 ERA) who is 9-8 with a 3.24 ERA in 24 career starts against the Cubs. That includes a 5-5 record behind a 3.07 ERA in 15 outings at Wrigley Field. The 30-year-old has not had much playoff success and is 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA in seven career postseason starts.

The Cubs turn to left-hander Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44) who led the NL in winning percentage with a .792 mark in the regular season. He is 10-1 in his last 15 starts dating back to before the All-Star break and finished the regular season with a fantastic 10-2 mark and 1.74 ERA home at Wrigley Field. Lester is 6-6 with a 2.85 ERA in 16 career playoff appearances (14 starts), but he lost both his postseason starts for Chicago last year. He’s had plenty of success against tonight’s opponent, boasting a 4-1 record with a 2.25 ERA in five career starts against the Giants

Trends

  • Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
  • Giants are 7-0 in their last 7 Divisional Playoff road games.
  • Cubs are 20-6 in their last 26 Friday games.
  • Cubs are 2-7 in their last 9 playoff home games.
  • Under is 12-5 in Giants last 17 road games.
  • Over is 7-3-1 in Cuetos last 11 starts overall.
  • Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 overall.
  • Under is 9-1 in Lesters last 10 starts overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.
  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
  • Giants are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings in Chicago.

My Lean

Personally I’m not touching this game. The Cubs are likely to win but only a fool would back them at that price while I don’t see any value on the Giants either. I don’t like playing teams on the runline at home either, particularly not when the total is set as low as 7. A play on the Giants +1.5 might be worth a small bet, but I’m going to recommend you to check out my premium picks instead, featuring a pair of early picks on Blue Jays vs. Rangers and Dodgers vs. Nationals.

 

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