Day of the Week Trends in Sports Betting
“The Yankees are 7-0 on a Friday. Bet the Yankees!” You may have seen similar statements in handicapper writeups, on forums, or on web pages with trends for certain matchups. They’re known as Day of the Week Trends in Sports Betting.
Are these trends something worth taking into account when handicapping a game? The subject is dividing the handicapping world. Some refer to it as pure mumbo jumbo, while others won’t place a single bet without making certain it’s a favorable spot for their team and/or pitcher trend-wise, or an un-favorable spot for their opponent.
Athletes are Humans too
I certainly understand the skepticism for trends like this. In a perfect world professional athletes have all their focus on the task at hand, and they prepare for each game meticulously.
We do however not live in a perfect world. The athletes are humans too, and they have lives outside of the ballpark/arena/field that can, and will affect their performance.
How many times have we seen a player, sometimes whole teams, come out and underperform massively completely out of the blue? They have obviously not lost their ability, but during a long regular season it’s simply impossible to keep 100% focus for each game. I’m a firm believer that you’ll find day of the week trends backing up and predicting most such performances.
Applicable Home & Away – For Different Reasons
Day of the week trends can affect players both at home, and on the road, depending on the player.
A player is more likely affected by his personal relationships at home where he has his routines and is surrounded by friends and family who have their routines, but being on the road can definitely affect players as well.
Long stays at hotels, boredom creeping in and a night out on the town might all of a sudden be too much of a temptation to pass up on, especially if it’s a weekend. Sometimes it can affect whole teams, particularly younger squads who don’t have the experience to deal with long road trips.
Not all players react the same way though. This is where it can be important to know the players personality and individual weaknesses, but I think that’s micromanaging and it’s impossible to actually know for a fact what goes on in their personal life on a day-to-day basis anyway.
Day of the Week Trends in Basketball
A day of the week trend I think is worth taking into consideration is if a basketball team has a really good ATS record at home on Fridays, Saturdays or Sundays. The home town crowd is likely to be extra rowdy on weekends and can carry the home team to fantastic results. This is particularly true for home underdogs.
Likewise, a big home favorite is in the risk zone of running low on motivation after the weekend. Keep an eye for big-name teams who do poorly on Mondays and Tuesday, and look for spots to fade them when favored by 10+ points.
Are They Worth Paying Attention to?
One could argue that day of the week trends are particularly of value in baseball, as the starting pitcher is playing such a huge part, but are the trends of statistical value or just noise? Is it just trends that will occur randomly without actually saying anything?
That’s for you and me to decide individually. That’s handicapping.