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The Angle(s): The Ottawa Senators are on the second night of a back-to-back, and I think the market is giving the tired-legs angle too much weight. Ottawa just went into New Jersey and handled the Devils 4-1, and coming back to the Canadian Tire Centre should more than make up for the short turnaround.
The St. Louis Blues have dropped three straight, most recently a 3-2 overtime loss to San Jose, and even that record is flattering. St. Louis has scored above its expected baseline, which tells me the offense has been running on finishing luck that won’t last. When the shooting regresses, a team that’s already allowing 3+ goals per game doesn’t have much to fall back on. I’ll back the better, more structured club at home, even on no rest.
The Bet: Senators ML -112 (3%).
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