“Should I Bet the Runline or the Moneyline?”
This is a question my clients often ask me when I release a moneyline play with particularly high juice. The answer?
The annoying but also oh so true answer is always, it depends.
Let’s take Clayton Kershaw as an example. He’s a phenomenal 39-7 SU, earning $100/game bettors $2,415 with a +21.8% ROI since the beginning of the 2016 season.
It has not been cheap to back arguably the best pitcher in baseball during that period though with an average line of -240.
Surely many bettors will have been tempted to back Kershaw and the Dodgers on the runline instead, thinking it will be equally profitable.
Well, they were wrong. Kershaw is only 22-24 against the runline since the beginning of the 2016 season, costing $100/game bettors $612 for a -10.9% ROI.
This is however not a pattern that is true for all pitchers.
At the other end of the spectrum we have Cleveland’s Corey Kluber who is 31-19 SU as a favorite with an average line of -175 over the last two seasons for a -1.8% ROI.
He’s however 28-22 against the runline during that same time period for a +20.1% ROI.
The Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka has been excellent both SU (27-11, +$1,297, +23.9% ROI) and against the runline (21-17, +$922, 24.1% ROI) over the last two years.
To wrap it up; you really need to know your pitcher before you opt for a play in the runline instead of the moneyline.
Just because a big favorite is worth a shot on the moneyline does not automatically make it a suitable play on the runline, and believing so will almost guaranteed hurt your bottom line.
Don’t forget to check out my premium picks & free picks and good luck with your betting.
// Mike Lundin
*All numbers as of July 25, 2017