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Should I Bet the Runline or the Moneyline?

“Should I Bet the Runline or the Moneyline?”

This is a question my clients often ask me when I release a moneyline play with particularly high juice. The answer?

The annoying but also oh so true answer is always, it depends.

Let’s take Clayton Kershaw as an example. He’s a phenomenal 39-7 SU, earning $100/game bettors $2,415 with a +21.8% ROI since the beginning of the 2016 season.

It has not been cheap to back arguably the best pitcher in baseball during that period though with an average line of -240.

Surely many bettors will have been tempted to back Kershaw and the Dodgers on the runline instead, thinking it will be equally profitable.

Well, they were wrong. Kershaw is only 22-24 against the runline since the beginning of the 2016 season, costing $100/game bettors $612 for a -10.9% ROI.

This is however not a pattern that is true for all pitchers.

At the other end of the spectrum we have Cleveland’s Corey Kluber who is 31-19 SU as a favorite with an average line of -175 over the last two seasons for a -1.8% ROI.

He’s however 28-22 against the runline during that same time period for a +20.1% ROI.

The Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka has been excellent both SU (27-11, +$1,297, +23.9% ROI) and against the runline (21-17, +$922, 24.1% ROI) over the last two years.

To wrap it up; you really need to know your pitcher before you opt for a play in the runline instead of the moneyline.

Just because a big favorite is worth a shot on the moneyline does not automatically make it a suitable play on the runline, and believing so will almost guaranteed hurt your bottom line.

Don’t forget to check out my premium picks & free picks and good luck with your betting.

// Mike Lundin

*All numbers as of July 25, 2017

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Game Details
Jul 20 '19, 8:10 PM in 2h
MLB | MIL vs ARI
Play on: UNDER 9 -110
Game Analysis

Mike Lundin's Brewers @ Diamondbacks Free Pick

The Milwaukee Brewers and the Arizona Diamondbacks combined for 17 runs Friday night. I expect runs to be harder to come by for both sides here in Game 3 of the series on Saturday.

Milwaukee hands the ball to left-hander Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 3.19 ERA) for his first start since landing on the injured list on June 1 due to arm fatigue. Each of Gonzalez's six starts this season have gone under the total and he owns a solid 2.93 ERA in eight career starts versus the D'Backs.

The Brewers turn to Zack Greinke (10-4, 2.95 ERA) who gave up five runs at St. Louis last time out, but he had held both Colorado and San Francisco scoreless over a combined 14 innings prior to that. Greinke owns a mediocre 4.07 ERA in eight career outings (seven starts) against the Brew Crew, but he has their current roster limited to a .221 AVG over 122 at-bats. 

Under is 5-2 in Greinke's last 7 starts overall. Under is 5-1 in Diamondbacks' last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Free pick on UNDER. 

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Pick Released on Jul 20 at 05:14 am

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

SERVICE BIO

A former poker pro, Mike Lundin made his picks available to the public in June of 2014. The late start didn't stop him from finishing as the #8 handicapper overall for the year with a profit of $34,970 for $1,000/game clients! He has since racked up multiple Top 10 finishes across several sports.

Betting Philosophy

Mike Lundin's experience as a professional poker player has proven to be an immeasurable asset in sports handicapping. He's a numbers guy, with a keen eye for spotting trends and stats that just don't jive with the odds offered by the books. Mike's plays will rarely be on huge favorites, he prides himself at finding value in close match-ups and although Mike's considered a moneyline/spread specialist, when he releases totals play you better believe he's got something special cooking. 

***Mike's Picks***

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***Accomplishments***

Soccer 2014 - Finished the year 77-61, +$17,530

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CBB 2016/2017 - Finished the season 62-42, +$16,300

NFL 2016/2017 - Finished the season 51-41, +$5,250

He finished the year as the #1 soccer handicapper in 2014 and is once again at the top of the leaderboard here in 2017. 

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