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Army vs North Texas Free Pick 12/27/16 – Heart of Dallas Bowl

By Brandon Shively

NCAA-F | Army vs North Texas
Play on: Army -10½ -115

 

It’s rare when you have a College Bowl game being a rematch from earlier in the year. Well, that’s what we have here and I like Army to get their revenge from losing to North Texas 35-18 earlier this year. Did North Texas outplay Army? No, Army just had a bad game. The weather conditions were bad and they had 7 turnovers! Yes, 7 turnovers, is the reason they lost that game.

After beating Navy, which was HUGE for the school and making their first bowl appearance since 2010, I feel Army will be super motivated for this game and adding fuel to their motivation is revenge from that loss.

There are several key statistical edges in our favor. Army ranks 4th in the nation in total defense at only 281 yards a game. They rank 17th against the run at only 124 yards a game and 4 yards a carry. They held Navy to only 201 total yards.

It’s a wonder North Texas made it to a bowl game. They rank 118th in total offense and 116th in yards per play. Army ranks 64th in yards per play at 5.81. The North Texas defense gives up 6 yards a play, 87th in the nation. They give up 5.1 yards a carry and 219 yards a game on the ground.

That is very bad news against an Army team that goes for 5.5 yards every time they run the ball and convert 46.5% of their 3rd downs on the season. In Army’s wins this year, they have converted 59.7% on 3rd downs. I am betting Army to win this game obviously and to keep those chains moving. In their wins, they have converted 18 of 20 times in the red zone for scores, 16 for touchdowns.

Army only allows a 37% conversion rate on 3rd downs. Really, Army had a two game stretch against Air Force and Notre Dame where they played bad. Other than that, they have outgained all of their other opponents.

North Texas got outgained by 251 yards their last game of the season and gave up 384 rushing yards to UTEP. Even teams not known for running the ball run all over North Texas. I think this game will be one-sided. Army has allowed only 38 points in the 4th quarter this year. North Texas isn’t built for coming from behind.

North Texas QB Mason Fine has been nursing a shoulder injury. It sounds like he can and will probably play, but not be 100% If  he is, then he will still be rusty. “I wouldn’t anticipate him starting, because he hasn’t practiced”, coach Littrell said. The other QB is Alec Morris who has completed only 53% of his passes this season with a 6 TD/ 6 INT mark. North Texas is supposed to have their starting running back close to 100%, but he won’t be effective if North Texas is playing from behind. Taking Army here for a 1* Pick.

Brandon is 2-0 this Bowl Season and 8-2 his L10 NCAAF Picks Overall. He will be having his College Bowl Game of the Month going this week along this week and has a 10* Totals Play going Tuesday. Brandon’s NCAAF Totals are 8-1 his L9! Join him Tuesday for another 10* WINNER!

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