Air Force Falcons will host Fresno State Bulldogs at Bulldog Stadium, Fresno, California Friday night. The Falcons are favored by 13.5 points with the total set at 53.5 points in this MWC matchup.
Air Force vs. Fresno State Free Pick
Air Force is 4-3 SU but 3-4 ATS on the season. The Falcons have lost each of their last three games outright. That despite heading into each of the games as a minimum of 13.5-point favorite. The Falcons rely on their running game and they’re averaging 291 rushing yards per contest on the season (5th best in the nation). QB Nate Romine is struggling though and completed just 1-of-10 passes for 20 yards and a pick in the last game. The Falcons are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss and just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in October.
Fresno State is 1-7 SU this season, but 4-3 ATS and it has covered the spread in each of its last three games. The team has been scoring just 21 points per game on offense while surrendering 34.1 points per game. Offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau will take over the team for now with Tim DeRuyter getting fired after losing by 18 to Utah State (as a 20.5-point underdog).
The Bulldogs are fairly dangerous through the air and might be able to take advantage of the Falcons’ subpar secondary that gave up over 300 yards passing against Hawaii last week. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss and 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.
I don’t see how you could possibly back Air Force here. The team has lost outright against much worse programs than Fresno State lately and the Bulldogs are always in there competing. Take the points on the visitors.