Bar a setback, the NBA is scheduled to resume on July 30 with 22 of the league’s 30 teams playing eight games apiece in a “Disney World Bubble” in Orlando, Florida to establish the final playoff seeding. With 88 games scheduled over 15 days, there certainly won’t be a lack of wagering options for sports bettors thirsty for basketball action.
Mike Lundin has isolated team trends that have generated a decent profit through the 2019-2020 season, and it would be wise to take them into account when betting the remaining schedule. With virtually all teams playing out the remaining schedule as away teams, it is of particular interest to identify teams that have performed well in certain spots on the road.
Most Profitable Away Dogs
The Los Angeles Lakers are a league-best 6-1 (85.7%) against the spread and straight-up as road dogs, although it is over a relatively small sample. Looking at their remaining schedule, we might not get another chance to bet them as underdogs, but two potential spots are against the Clippers on July 30 (currently -1 favorite) and against the Rockets on August 6.
A more interesting team to follow is the Sacramento Kings who are 17-7 (70.8%) ATS as road dogs. They sit 11th in the Western Conference, only 3.5 games behind 8th-placed Memphis, so motivation surely won’t be an issue for the Kings. They are currently a 2.5-point favorite over the Spurs in their restart-opener, but we should be getting other opportunities to take the points on Sacramento over the remaining seven games. Other good shouts are the Boston Celtics who are 9-3-0 (75.0%) ATS and the Oklahoma City Thunder, 15-5-0 (75.0%) ATS.
Most Profitable Away Favorites
The New Orleans Pelicans have the best winning percentage against the spread in the league as a road favorite at 7-1-0 (87.5%). They’ll head into the restart with a decent shot at making the playoffs, sitting only 3.5 games behind 8th-placed Memphis Other teams that have delivered in these spots are the Boston Celtics 11-4-2 (73.3%) ATS and Dallas Mavericks, 13-5-1 (72.2%) ATS. An away favorite to fade, if the past result is an indication of things to come, is the Philadelphia 76ers who are just 4-11 (26.7%) ATS as a road favorite.
Will Miami and Orlando Have An Advantage?
With all games taking place in Orlando, Florida, one might conclude that Miami and Orlando will have an advantage as they are used to the weather and environment, etc.
Miami and Orlando Team Trends Breakdown
- Heat 16-11-1 (59.3%) as home favorites, 3-1-0 (75.0%) as home dogs
- Magic 8-10-0 (44.4%) as home favorites, 2-9-1 (18.2%) as home dogs
Clearly, the spots to keep an eye on are Heat as favorites and Magic as dogs, with the latter being of particular interest.