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Brewers vs Astros MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Houston Astros have started to make up ground after a slow start to the year, but this looks like a spot where they could hit another bump against a Milwaukee team with the masterful Jacob Misiorowski (5–2, 1.83 ERA) on the bump.

Milwaukee is 2-0 against the runline as road favorites with Misiorowski on the hill. He will face Houston for the first time, but a 2.41 ERA in seven career interleague starts suggests he can handle American League bats, and the Brewers are 4–1 in his last five trips to the mound.

Houston turns to Tatsuya Imai, who tossed six innings of a combined no-hitter last time out, but with a 6.17 ERA and 1.50 WHIP on the season, that performance looks much more like an outlier than the norm, and I'll gladly fade him off the emotional high of participating in a combined no-hitter.

The Bet: BREWERS -1½ (3%). 

MAGIC MIKE'S MLB MONEYLINE MAYHEM

The Angle(s): The Miami Marlins’ 8–18 road record scares no one, and while Janson Junk (3–5, 4.80 ERA) allowed just one run over five innings in an 8–2 win at Toronto last time out, giving up eight hits with only three strikeouts made it far from a dominant performance. Nolan McLean (2–4, 4.40 ERA) has surrendered 13 earned runs across his past two starts, but those came on 13 hits with 11 strikeouts, four untimely home runs really did the damage, and the underlying metrics were not quite as ugly as the surface line suggests.

Miami has been held to one run in three of four straight losses, and I expect them to close out the week with a fifth consecutive defeat.

The Bet: METS (3%). 

EARLY 4% MLB RUNLINE TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): This looks like a good spot to back a hot Washington Nationals side, with five wins in their last seven games after a 9–4 win as an underdog yesterday. Nats right-hander Zack Littell (4–4, 5.23 ERA) has sharpened up, allowing only two earned runs over his past two starts, while Padres righty Griffin Canning has stumbled through May with an 0–3 record, a 7.54 ERA, and a 1.54 WHIP as the Padres have gone just 1–4 in his starts. I won’t go as far as saying the wrong team is favored here, but…isn’t the wrong team favored?

The Bet: HATIONALS +1½ (4%).