Mike Lundin Premium Sports Betting Service Plays

Guadians/Reds MLB BOOKIE BU$TER

The Angle(s): Cleveland limps into Cincinnati having been swept by Tampa Bay, extending its losing streak to five games. Reds righty Chase Burns (12-1, 2.42 ERA) has been the best story in Cincinnati this year, but the Reds as a team are a well-below-.500 club at 49-55, last in the NL Central, and Burns' brilliance hasn't been enough to lift the roster around him. 

Guardians righty Slade Cecconi (4-7, 4.60 ERA) looks shaky on the season line, but after a rough first eight starts (6.15 ERA), Cecconi has posted a 2.96 ERA over his last nine outings, coinciding with catcher Patrick Bailey's arrival in early May. That's a real caution for anyone assuming Cecconi is an easy target based on his cumulative ERA, as he's been a different pitcher lately.

This does set up as a buy-low spot on the better overall team, and at this price, I'll gladly take the extra run and a half.

The Bet: Guardians +1½ (3%). 

Blue Jays vs Nationals MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): Toronto's 42-year-old veteran right-hander Max Scherzer (1-4, 10.23 ERA) actually turns 42 today (it's his real birthday!) but there's no gift in this matchup. He's making his first start off the injured list, so this isn't just a decline story, it's a rusty veteran coming off a six-week layoff. His last two outings before landing on the IL were brutal, as he served up five homers between those two starts alone, pushing his season total to nine allowed in just 22 innings. 

Nationals lefty Andrew Alvarez (2-3, 4.22 ERA) isn't spotless either, but this is a favorable matchup as the Blue Jays are hitting just .218 with a .653 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, among the worst marks in the majors. 

The Bet: Nationals (3%). 

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MAGIC MIKE'S Cubs/Cardinals MLB BOOKIE BREAKER

The Angle(s): The St. Louis Cardinals have lost eight of their last 10, but this looks like a facorable matchup for a Cardinals team 18-12 against left-handed starters on the season. They hammered David Peterson (5-7, 5.97 ERA) with 10 runs on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings of a 17-1 win against the Cubs on July 3. Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore (5-7, 5.18) has an ERA of 3.38 in 12 appearances (six starts) against the Cubs, including three earned runs runs over 10 1/3 innings across two starts this season.  

The Bet: Cardinals (3%). 

5% SUPER MAX NL Game of the Month

The Angle(s): Merrill Kelly (8-8, 5.12 ERA) is a veteran who knows how to navigate PNC Park. He is 3-1 with a 3.14 ERA in five career appearances (all starts) against the Pirates, and has held the current Pirates roster to a meager .200 batting average. Kelly has answered a five-start losing streak in June by going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA thus far in July.

Mitch Keller (6-7, 4.90 ERA) is 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA in six career appearances (all starts) versus the Diamondbacks, but Arizona has bee swinging hot bats, and I think they'll get to Keller early and easy. 

The Bet: Diamondbacks (5%).