Florida Gators (3-0) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (3-0)
3:30 PM ET, Saturday, September 24, 2016
Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee
TEN -6.5 ; Total: 43
The No. 12 Tennessee Volunteers have not had much success against the Florida Gators in recent seasons. They enter this game looking to end an 11-game losing streak in the series, and that includes a tight 28-27 loss here at Neyland Stadium last season.
Both teams are coming into Week 4 of the season with a perfect 3-0 record. It’s worth noting that this will be the Gators’ first game on the road this season, but they’re 9-1 ATS in their last 10 away from home.
The Gators shut out North Texas in a 32-0 home victory last week and set a school record by holding North Texas to 53 yards of total offense. They’ve held opponents to an average of 129.6 yards per game on the season. Starting quarterback Luke Del Rio suffered a knee sprain which will push graduate student Austin Appleby into the starting role. A strong running game should take some pressure off Appleby, and that’s likely to be the case as the team has totaled 606 yards on the ground on the season. Jordan Scarlett leads the rushing attack with 175 yards and two scores.
The Volunteers are coming into the game with some injury woes of their own as star cornerback Cameron Sutton is out with a broken ankle while linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin is questionable with shoulder ailment. Tennessee has started games slowly, being outscored 27-10 in the first quarter on the season, but it can’t afford to do that here against a solid Gators team. The Volunteers have struggled defensively despite coming up against farily weak opponents giving up 336.7 yards per contest coming into Saturday afternoon.
Trends
- Gators are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
- Gators are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Gators are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Gators are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
- Volunteers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
- Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Volunteers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Tennessee.
- Gators are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
My Lean
Gun to my head, I would take the Gators but only at +7 or better. Instead I would recommend you to sign up for my 3-Day All Sports All Access Pass for $99.95. You’ll get all my premium picks for three full days, and I can guarantee you it will be a minimum of 10 picks. That’s less than $10 / play!
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