Daily Expert Free Picks

Recommended Bet: AS Monaco +105

3* on 49ers

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Houston Texans -10

The Houston Texans went from the best 0-4 team in NFL history to the best 1-4 team in NFL history. And then they upgraded to the best 2-4 team in NFL history in my opinion and saved their season with a 34-31 win over the Jaguars in London.

They did the same thing last year coming back from a dreadful start to the season, and they are well on their way to doing it again. They are a legit Super Bowl contender, and as long as they stay reasonably healthy that will prove to be the case as the season goes on.

The Texans are three defensive stops away from being 5-1 this season. They blew leads in the final seconds to the Bills, Colts and Cowboys. But head coach Ryans has since taken over play-calling duties, and they have gotten healthier getting back both stud LB's in Al-Shaair and To'oTo'o from injury. The only key player they are missing on D now is Jalen Pitre. This is one of the best defenses in the NFL in their current state.

But what has gotten overlooked is just how good CJ Stroud has played during this 2-4 start. He is completing 65.3% of his passes for 1,714 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season. It has been night and day how good this offense has been when WR Nico Collins is in the lineup. And now more reinforcements are on the way with Tank Dell likely to return this week. The Texans have one of the deepest WR corps in the NFL, plus a great TE in Schultz, and I actually think the offense has been better with Marks as the lead back.

The Giants are overrated and it's a miracle that they are leading the NFC East right now. It's been more bad from Dallas, Philly and Washington than good from the Giants that they find themselves in this position. But they got exposed by the Saints last week, and now it's going to be even uglier against the Texans this week.

The Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They are allowed 24 points to the Cardinals, 27 to the Commanders and 34 to the Saints in their last three games coming in. The defense has gotten much worse since the injury to their best pass rusher in LB Brian Burns. They are also without DE Golstson, LB Edmunds, CB Newsome II and FS Holland. They have cluster injuries in the secondary with Adebo and Nubin both questionable. It's just a mess.

I think JJ McCarthy is getting too much hype for what he did in garbage time against a very bad New Orleans defense last week in nearly leading the Giants back from a 34-10 deficit. He had one good game for the Vikings last year too that got him more starts. And it was a disaster after that. I think McCarthy will prove to be a disaster in New York, too. Especially this week when he faces a legit Houston defense. Bet the Texans Sunday.

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1* Free Pick on Giants/Texans under 42½

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Falcons +130 (ML) 

1* NFL - Dolphins/Jets NFL FREE PICK on Dolphins +4.5 

I see this as a blowout victory for the Texans. CJ Stroud is having a big season and his receiving corps is upgraded with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr.

The Giants are going to be without their three best defensive players. Out are linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, pass rusher Brian Burns and safety Jevon Holland.

Stroud is a pocket passer. The Giants lack the pass rush and experienced safeties to keep him off his rhythm.

I'm not expecting much from J.J. McCarthy in his first start as a Giant. McCarthy was surprisingly effective in relief of Jameis Winston in garbage time at home against the Saints last week. But the Texans have a much better defense than New Orleans and McCarthy is now on the road. 

The Texans have a strong pass rush and have up-to-date film of McCarthy, who was terrible with the Vikings. 

Ricky's 1* play on ATL.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Falcons are 4-2 ATS in the last 6 head to head meetings.

- The Falcons are 6-4 in their last 10 games.

- The Falcons have won 4 of their last 7 home games.

Verdict: The value is on the home Underdog.

1* Free Pick on Colts +6½

The Vikings are 5-0 and the defense is real, allowing just 12.8 points a game.

No argument there.

But look at how those wins came: 23-16 over Tampa Bay, 9-3 in Chicago, 15-10 over Miami.

Three of five by a touchdown or less.

That profile wins games.

It doesn't cover big numbers.

Minnesota hasn't scored more than 23 points since the opener against Green Bay.

To cover 6.5, this offense needs to do something it hasn't done in over a month.

The Colts can score.

They're averaging 24 points through 6 games and have hit at least 19 in every one of their last 5.

Jonathan Taylor has 7 touchdowns and posted a season-high 151 scrimmage yards last week.

Keenan Allen has become the chain mover, with a 26-227-1 line on a team-high 40 targets.

Last week's loss to Tennessee was self-inflicted: three turnovers plus a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, and Indy still only lost by 6.

Clean up the giveaways and this offense travels fine.

Colts tight end Tyler Warren sits out a second straight game with a groin injury, but that's already priced in.

They scored 20 without him last week while handing Tennessee two free scores.

Kyler Murray is coming off a bye and completed 80 percent of his passes against New Orleans, so Minnesota winning wouldn't surprise me.

Winning and covering 6.5 are two different bets.

A short-score team laying this many points is a price I'll take the other side of every time.

I like the Colts

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Detroit Lions -3.5

The Key: The Detroit Lions are coming off their bye week and are as healthy as they have been all season now. They face the Green Bay Packers, who have a plethora of injuries on defense. The Packers have good defensive numbers but they've played as easy a schedule of opposing QB's as you will ever see. They have faced backup QB's in 4 of their 6 games, plus Geno Smith. Detroit will light them up. The Lions average 32.8 PPG this year. They will also be as healthy as they have been all season on defense getting some key players back in the secondary. They have a very strong Front 7 and will give Green Bay's suspect offensive line some problems. The spot really favors the Lions off the bye. Take Detroit.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY AC Milan -125

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Dolphins/Jets OVER 39

The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets will get into more of a shootout than this total would indicate. This total should be in the 40's. The Dolphins are coming off their bye week and will have some new wrinkles to boost the offense. They are much healthier at the skill positions than when they went into the bye. They have reached 40 combined points in three of their five games this season, including 55 with Cincinnati and 48 with San Francisco. The Jets have been battling injuries to their skill position players, too, but they are much healthier now. Geno Smith should have his full compliment of weapons in Wilson, Mitchell, Cooper Jr., Taylor and Sadiq as all but Wilson have missed playing time. Smith and company should have one of their best offensive outputs of this season against this soft Miami defense. And there's a chance Breece Hall returns this week. Give me the OVER.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Steelers vs Saints under 43½ -110

Sunday card has the 2026 3X PERFECT AFC East TOTAL OF THE YEAR headlining along with a TOP Red Zone release, Sunday night Football and Early Season NBA Power systems. Comp play below.

The NFL Comp play is on Arizona plus the points at 4:05 eastern. The Cards are off the big upset win over the Rams last week and should be tough here as well. Home dogs off a road dog win with a total higher than 38 are a perfect 6-0 to the spread since 200 vs an opponent like Denver that comes in off a Thursday home win. Denver has failed to cover 9 of 10 after a game with Seattle. Arizona has played well and despite red zone struggles should be in this game and cant pull another upset here. Take the points with Arizona. GL Rob V-

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Chip’s FREE NFL Winner!

LA Rams at Las Vegas 4:25 ET

Rams (-) over Raiders - This has got to be the biggest over-reaction game n week 7 by both the public and wiseguys alike. It seem that everybody’s favorite to go to the Super Bowl have fallen upon hard time and everyone is abounding ship. In Las Vegas despite three straight losses the Raiders are sill high on everyone wish list. I can’t help it, the difference in class is too great and the line has been giving Las Vegas too much respect. Take LA RAMS!

OVER 53.5

Detroit's offense is averaging nearly 33 PPG and Goff has been surgical with 12 TD passes and zero turnovers. Now he gets an extra week to prepare for a Green Bay defense whose recent improvement came against backup QBs and a struggling Dallas attack. That's a different assignment than dealing with this Lions offense. The problem for Detroit? Its defense is surrendering more than 400 yards per game, giving Love and Green Bay plenty of opportunities to answer. With Jacobs expected back, the Packers have another weapon to keep the scoreboard moving. This one has shootout written all over it. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER 53.5. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

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Tampa Bay Getting the Points in Charlotte Is the Quieter Ticket Against a Short Home Favorite

Tampa Bay is 1-5 and Carolina is 3-2. The number is sitting around a field goal at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina opened closer to 3.5 and has settled near 3 or 2.5. A short home favorite against a division road dog that can still run the ball is not a number that needs to be laid just because the building is in Charlotte and the Panthers are sitting atop the NFC South early. The points are the side if the hook stays at 2.5 or better.

Bryce Young and the Panthers are scoring 29.2 points a game and moving the ball at roughly 404 yards, ranking near the top of the league in both. Tampa is at 19.8 points and about 293 yards, but the run game remains viable at 128 yards and 4.8 a carry, with Bucky Irving carrying the bulk of the load. Baker Mayfield has been limited by the thumb injury and is expected back, though the Bucs have used other options and will be without key pieces like Emeka Egbuka. Carolina’s defense is allowing 24.6 points and has been soft against the run, giving up around 132 yards and over 5 yards a carry. Tampa does not need to win by a field goal. They need the final margin to stay inside the number. A competitive division game between two teams that have already traded results in this series more often than the short favorite covers is the profile.

Tampa Bay’s ground game is the clearest path. They rank in the top tier in rushing yards and yards per carry while their defense has held opponents to just 75.5 rushing yards per game, second in the league. Carolina’s offense is explosive—Bryce Young has been efficient and the unit ranks second in total yards—but their defensive front has not consistently shut down the run. That creates a structural edge for a road team that can control the clock and stay within a short number.

Recent series history supports the competitive script. The last meeting was a 16-14 Bucs win in Tampa. Before that, Carolina took a 23-20 decision in Charlotte. Those are not blowouts. Across the last several meetings the margins have often stayed inside a field goal or small window, even as the Bucs have taken the majority of recent results. The all-time series is essentially even. Division games between these clubs rarely produce the kind of one-sided outcome a short home favorite needs to cash cleanly.

The market has not moved the number off the short side despite Tampa’s record. Public money is still leaning Carolina. The points have been the quieter ticket when the favorite is being asked to cover a field goal or less against a road team that can control the ground game.

Bet the road underdog of three points or fewer in a division game. That look since the early 2010s: 19-10 ATS (65.5 percent). At -110, 19 wins and 10 losses is +7.6 units, ROI=26.2 percent. Tampa is getting the points. Carolina is laying the short number at home.

Bet against a short home favorite of three points or fewer when the underdog has shown it can run the ball at 4.5 yards or better. Tampa’s ground game is still functional. That situation since the early 2010s: 17-9 ATS (65.4 percent) for the dog. At -110 that is +6.5 units, ROI=25.0 percent.

Shop the hook. If it is +2.5 or +3, the value is cleaner. If it drops to +1.5 with heavy juice, the edge shrinks. Confirm Mayfield’s status and any late defensive news on both sides. A backup quarterback or missing offensive pieces changes the side more for the favorite than the dog here. The house does not care that Carolina is sitting atop the division early. The total and the short number are already on the sheet. The points are the quieter play.

My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over San Francisco at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We cashed a ticket fading the 49ers on Monday Night Football as they won but failed to cover against the Commanders. Still undefeated on the season, I think the Niners are ripe for the 'upset' as they head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta is coming off a tough home loss to the Bears last week. That marked its second straight loss both SU and ATS and it has quickly fallen out of favor with most bettors following a brief surge that saw it win consecutive primetime games in Green Bay and New Orleans. I still think the Falcons are a good team with plenty of weapons on offense and a competitive defense led by an underrated coordinator in Jeff Ulbrich. Look for the Falcons to scheme up a gameplan to take San Francisco down to the wire at the very least on Sunday, noting that this will only be the Niners second true road game of the season (they won the other by a field goal in Seattle two weeks ago). Take Atlanta (8*).

Colts vs Vikings 4% TOP PLAY Free Pick

Riding a 5-0 FREE PICK RUN! I'm feeling really good about this free pick and it's upgraded to a 4% TOP PLAY, one notch above the standard 3% rating for a free pick. 

The Angle(s): The Minnesota Vikings have won 10 straight games, covering eight of them, and Brian Flores has built one of the league's nastiest defenses. Minnesota allows fewer than 260 yards per game, gives up touchdowns on just a quarter of red zone trips and holds opponents to a 22% conversion rate on third down. That's a brutal matchup for Daniel Jones, who has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and was sacked six times last week.

The Indianapolis Colts are reeling after blowing a 13-0 halftime lead in a home loss to the previously winless Titans. They're also banged up, and they've given up 33 and 34 points in two of their three road games.

The Bet: Vikings ATS (4%). 

5-1 (83%) since Oct 11 with NFL ATS wagers! 

Mike has an NFL 3-pack with 2 sides and 1 total, ALL WITH A STRONG 4% RATING, and including a pick on the Sunday Night Chiefs vs Seahawks matchup. 

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